2023-24 Season

Dilemma on Defence

Minor Details

The Montreal Canadiens brain trust has quietly been filling in spots to ensure their minor league affiliates in Laval and Trois Rivieres will be as competitive as possible. While some big-name, graduating draftees like Owen Beck and Filip Mesar will join the pro ranks, these unheralded signings add to the organizational depth. Connor Hughes, a young veteran with plenty of experience in Europe, looks to share goaltending duties in Laval with Jakub Dobes. The Rocket should benefit from a far more experienced tandem in net than they had to start last season. Jared Davidson signed an NHL contract that confirms he will remain in the Montreal organization for a couple of years – unless he is traded. While the Canadiens failed to offer 20-year-old Cedrick Guindon an NHL contract they did ink 21-year-old Israel Mianscum to an AHL deal. Guindon put up 57 points in the AHL while Mianscum tallied 87 points in the QMJHL. Deals like the one Mianscum signed help keep the prospect pipeline stocked without counting against the 50-man roster limit. It is an approach they took with Jared Davidson and Michel Tourigny in the past. Another prospect could also join the organization as Joshua Nadeau has been invited to the team’s development camp. He picked up 45 points in 37 NCAA with Maine last season after scoring 110 points in 54 games with the Penticton Vees of the BCHL in the 2022-23 season. The 5-8 winger is small by pro standards but has shown an ability to put points on the board. These moves are an indication that the Canadiens’ management team is looking after details at all levels of the organization and fans can expect more announcements to come over the next four months. It bodes well for the future. -Trask

Two Burning Questions

There is a lot of excitement and debate among Canadiens’ fans concerning which player Kent Hughes will choose at fifth overall in the upcoming entry draft. But all of that hoopla should be put into perspective when it comes to the upcoming season. In the long run, this yet unknown player should become a key contributor but let’s tap the brakes a little when it comes to next season. History tells us that it is highly unlikely that the Habs’ first choice in the draft will make the team for the 2024-25 season and even if he does, he would probably be eased into the lineup in the same way the Slafkovsky was or even like the situation with Quinton Byfield of the LA Kings. If fans are looking at next season two burning questions would be, who plays RW on Kirby Dach’s line and who among defencemen stays and who goes. The current roster has a plethora of players well suited to third and fourth line roles but desperately lacks a sniper… not another playmaker or role player but someone with a knack for putting the puck into the net. On defence, almost every fan recognizes there are more players than positions available even if Lane Hutson fails to make the team. And if Hutson wins a spot, the picture becomes even more clouded. Yes, the draft will be important and exciting but the payoff will likely be down the road a bit. In the meantime, Kent Hughes will be continuing to build the Canadiens into a competitive team and to do so, these two questions will have to be answered.

Is Mantha a Fit?

In the search for some scoring punch on the Habs, there had been some hype around the potential signing of Maxim Tsyplakov out of the KHL before he signed with the Islanders. There are other potential targets as well and Anthony Mantha could be one of them if he doesn’t re-sign with Vegas. But is he a fit? The 6’5 forward would bring some much-needed size to the forward lineup and, as a bonus, is a native of Longueuil, Quebec. NHL Edge provides a glimpse of the attributes he brings to a team. His top skating speed ranks in the 74th percentile and he ranks even higher for bursts of speed above 20 and 22 mph. His skating distance per 60 minutes is in the 67th percentile so he does more than just stand around. Mantha’s top shot speed is 96 mph ranking him in the 82nd percentile. He also ranks in the 69th percentile for shots from high-danger areas and his shooting percentage from all locations on the ice ranks in the 99th percentile. The disclaimer is that these are his individual characteristics only and say nothing about his team play, his defensive play or his effort on the ice. Nevertheless, these individual qualities are something that was lacking on the Canadiens this past season. Another caveat is that he will be looking for a long-term contract and it is unlikely to be cheap – AFP Analytics projects in to be three years at $4.4 million per year. He will be 30 years old when the season starts, which may not seem to be the sweet spot for the Habs, but a three-year contract may fit the timeline for this year’s first-round pick to come in and replace him on expiry. With all that said, would Anthony Mantha be a fit for the Canadiens? – Trask

No Rush For Hughes

Kent Hughes is sitting in an enviable spot. Not only does he have a solid pipeline of potential NHL players in the system, he has 12 picks in the upcoming draft and most of his key players have not yet reached their peak. Hughes can scrutinize the market in search of a player or players who will help take the team to the next level without the pressure of being forced into a disadvantageous trade. Any additions made this summer will have a full season with the Canadiens before the pressure to compete for the Cup truly ramps up. That doesn’t mean Hughes won’t take a big swing in the trade market or the UFA market but he has the luxury of time on his side, at least for now. The lack of urgency to compete for the Cup next season also means he doesn’t have to dump veterans at below-market value this summer and he can allow them to show their value before the trade deadline. But if the right deal comes along, history shows us that the Montreal GM will pull the trigger. – Trask

Domino Effect

Kent Hughes has clearly stated that one of his off-season goals is to acquire a scoring winger for the Montreal Canadiens. While that effort is widely applauded, it will have a significant impact on what the bottom six will look like if Hughes is successful. It likely means that young prospects on offense, like Joshua Roy, will have to be patient before they get a legitimate shot at a full time NHL job. Veteran wingers like Gallagher, Anderson and Armia won’t bring that top scoring winger to Montreal in a summer trade. Nor are they likely to beat out Alex Newhook for a spot on the second line with Kirby Dach and a newly acquired winger. The domino effect means they would be on the roster in one role or another but not in the top six. With only two wing positions on the third line, it could lead to one of this trio playing on the fourth line. Which one would it be? Of course this is all dependent upon Hughes being successful in his efforts to acquire a top scoring winger. An interesting summer is shaping up with regard to where some of the veteran forwards will open the season. – Trask

Unlikely Summer Trade Candidates

Social media is awash with suggestions on which players Kent Hughes should trade over the summer and how little he should expect in return. The usual candidates are Joel Armia, Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson and at times, David Savard and Mike Matheson. But every seller needs a buyer and many fail to take that into account. Summer is when the big trades most often occur and is when contenders or near-contenders look to add a significant difference-maker to their rosters. Complementary pieces are often added at the trade deadline when the need to strengthen a position or two has been identified during the season. An honest look at these names on the Canadiens and you would be hard-pressed to find a difference maker other than perhaps Matheson who seems unlikely to be moved. And buyers are unlikely to take on any of the contracts on the above named players for a full season. They may be able to live with that cap hit for a couple of months if they are still in contention, but not for a full season. For the most part, these are complementary players who fill a specific role on a team. Matheson aside, the value for each of them is low right now although it has improved for both Armia and Savard – and Kent Hughes is averse to selling low. Since Jeff Gorton and Hughes don’t see the Canadiens as serious Cup contenders for the upcoming, there is nothing to lose in keeping these players for the bulk of the season as the team strives to reach the playoffs. It allows top prospects to marinate a little longer in Laval. Ongoing evaluation of how they are playing along with how in demand they might be from other teams and how the prospects in Laval are progressing will determine the eventual fate of a few veterans. The situation will remain highly fluid but don’t expect any earth-shattering trades involving these players over the summer. Expectations need to be tempered. – Trask

Matheson’s Value

The old axiom in the NHL is that defencemen have a higher asset value than a forward – all else being equal. For those who salivate at the thought of trading Mike Matheson for an up-and-coming player, let’s take a closer look. Matheson was the ninth leading scorer among NHL defencemen on a team that ranked 26th in scoring. Among left-shot defencemen, he was fifth in scoring. What could his numbers have been if he played with more offensively talented forwards? Now let’s take a look at the ninth-highest-scoring forward. It is J.T. Miller with 103 points. If you want to limit your target to RWs (a position of need for the Habs), the ninth-highest point-getter is Travis Konecny with 33 goals and 68 points; the fifth-highest is Mitch Marner with 85 points. Another key number that always works into the equation is cap hit. Matheson put up those numbers with the 62nd-highest cap hit among NHL defencemen, making him one of the biggest bargains in the league. Taking all of that into consideration, it seems doubtful that Hughes will trade his highest-scoring defenceman for a forward who is unproven but has potential. – Trask

Mailloux – Comparisons and Expectations

As Logan Mailloux prepares to make his first appearance in an NHL game, it’s worth looking at his path to the NHL. The 6-3 220 defencemen certainly has the physical profile of an NHL defenceman and this season he will finish third among Laval Rocket players in points. But the ride has been bumpy. From 2020 to 2023, Mailloux played in only 75 OHL games. In what was to be his first full year in the OHL, the season was cancelled by Covid so he played 19 games in Sweden. In the next season, he was limited to 12 games and finally, in the 2022-23 season Mailloux was able to develop his skills under game conditions with 59 games with the London Knights. A comparison can be drawn with another former London Knights defenceman, Evan Bouchard. Both are big, highly-skilled offensive defencemen with great shots and excellent skating ability. And both have been criticized at times for their defensive flaws. Bouchard, however, had 223 games in the OHL to refine his game or roughly three times as many as Mailloux. In his first year in the OHL, Bouchard seven goals and 36 points while Mailloux posted 14 goals and 47 points despite having only one season of development in junior hockey under their belt. Will Mailloux develop into another Bouchard? Who knows? One game is too early to draw conclusions but Habs fans should expect to see a player who may not display his full set of skills in his first game, a player who may show flashes of offensive brilliance accompanied by defensive gaffes. Patience should be preached. Very few players have achieved what Mailloux has done with such limited development time. Even at the start next season, he may not win a regular job on the blueline but if his development continues, Canadiens’ fans could look forward to seeing a dominant player. Logan Mailloux is a unique player who has followed a unique path to his first NHL game.

Measuring Progress

Many will look at the standings and conclude that the Montreal Canadiens have made little progress this season. Looking beyond that single metric, however, shows that progress is being made. Goals against has improved by roughly ten percent this year despite the fact the team went with an inefficient three-goaltender rotation for the bulk of the season. Since that has been abandoned, the GAA for the team has improved. As a result, the goaltending situation looks to be more settled for the upcoming season. The young defence is gradually improving as well. On offense, production remains almost exactly where it was last season but even here, there is reason for optimism. The team has been without its second-leading point-getter, Kirby Dach, from last season. His return along with a full year from Alex Newhook bodes well for the offence. Faceoff efficiency has also improved, even without a significant contribution from Christian Dvorak who will have missed at least 52 games. Power play efficiency has improved modestly but the penalty kill has not. Both areas need improvement for the team to move forward. Internal development from young players should help the team to slightly improve all of these areas. A year of reasonably good health, somewhat of a bounce-back from a couple of veterans, and an off-season addition or two (prospect, trade, or free agent) could see the Canadiens become a much tougher opponent for the 2024-25 season. – Trask