Can Montreal Make the Playoffs?

Can the Montreal Canadians make the playoffs? That is the burning question on the minds of many fans as the club prepares for its 115th training camp.

Many feel it is still too early to set such lofty goals but is it really? At some point, aging contenders with little in the way of young talent coming up in the system hit the wall, especially those who said goodbye to key players attempting to get under the salary cap. As a result, they begin the inevitable slide into mediocrity.

We saw that with Detroit in the 2010s when their unprecedented 25-year playoff run ended with the decline of stars like Nick Lindstrom Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. The Red Wings have not been back in the playoffs ever since.

Thesickpodcast.com has published the bottom 16 teams in terms of U25 depth and Tampa, Toronto, and Boston are all entrenched in the bottom eight as all three have traded away many drafted prospects and high draft picks in the past five years. All three teams have remained in contention because they all have some of the best players in the NHL. Because of that, none of them will be sinking to the bottom of the NHL standings anytime soon but it’s not a stretch to think that Montreal, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Detroit are closing the gap in earnest this season. 

Boston has lost Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Linus Ullmark in the past two seasons, Captain Brad Marchand also showed visible signs of decline last season and while they helped patch up the huge losses at center by signing Elias Lindholm, there is a distinct possibility that the four teams below them who are loaded with young talent will have improved enough to win their fair share of games against the Bruins this season. 

The talent gap between Boston and Montreal that existed over the past decade has diminished to the point where it could be argued that the Canadiens have more skill. Certainly, there is no comparison between Boston’s U25 talent and Montreal’s. We all saw two years ago how a team far out of the playoff race the season before can take a sizable leap in point totals and make the playoffs when New Jersey surprised everyone after finishing at the bottom of the division the season before.  They did so on the backs of their highly-touted young talent. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, in particular, came into their own and vaulted the club to a 49-point improvement.

The Canadiens don’t need 49 more points to earn a spot in the 2025 playoffs – not even close. No other Atlantic Division team added two 6-4 players to its top six this offseason. It was much needed. Beyond the first line, there wasn’t enough size skill combo to compete with the top dogs in the division and throughout the league. That will no longer be the case. 

Montreal’s top six will have six former top 16 picks, with the oldest being just 26. With the jettisoning of Steven Stamkos in the offseason, Tampa will ice a team with no first-round picks in the top six. The Lightning have forwards who were draft steals and have vastly overachieved in their careers and that’s why they are still playoff contenders. Nevertheless, the talent gap between the two clubs no longer exists, especially after the Lightning traded Michael Sergachev to find room under the salary cap. 

Tampa arguably still has the best players in Kucherov, Vasileskiy, and Hedman. Aside from Brayden Point, most of the next dozen in terms of skill/potential would be Canadiens. Players like Nick Paul, Anthony Cirelli, and Brandon Hagel are solid NHL forwards but can’t be expected to make leaps in production given that they’re now firmly established NHLers in the primes of their careers.  What you see is likely what you get.  The same can be said of Jake Guentzel. You know what you are getting, and while that’s really good, the potential for Montreal’s young forwards is limitless.]y[

Does Juraj Slafkosky make the same jump in point production as he did last season? If he comes close to that, he’s a point-per-game player. Cole Caufield has had at least 16 months to recover from shoulder surgery. Can he regain those extra couple of miles per hour on his shot and get back to the 40-goal pace he was on two seasons ago? Has Nick Suzuki reached his ceiling or is another 11-point increase coming for a player who just turned 25?

Kirby Dach looked ready to break through as an impactful top-two center last season before he injured his knee. As a former top-three pick who is just 23, does he start reaching that vast potential this season? He may hit the 60-point mark this season with good health and talented linemates. He will line up beside at least one of Laine, Slafkovsky, or Caufield this season, and given his puck protection skills, vision, and playmaking ability, there is a reasonable expectation that he can breach the 40-assist mark.

Laine is another wildcard given the trying season he just went through. He is the biggest unknown at this point but the fact remains that if his head is on straight and he stays healthy, he is fully capable of notching 40 goals this season.  The more likely scenario is that he scores 30-40 goals but even that will be a most welcome addition to a club with no 20-goal scorers in the bottom nine in 2023-24.

Alex Newhook had a rollercoaster first season with the Canadiens but there were several reasons for that. He was bounced around the top nine at both center and wing and never had regular linemates for any extended period. He also suffered a serious injury mid-season that curtailed any momentum he may have gained. He also had linemates that struggled offensively and had no business being in the top nine.

Despite that, Newhook was on pace for 22 goals and 50 points in his third NHL season. If he beats out Joshua Roy for a second-line spot and has regular linemates like Laine and Dach…two former top-three picks…is 25 goals and 60 points an unrealistic goal for him? He had that potential in his draft year, and he has that potential today at just 23 years of age.

If Roy doesn’t beat out Newhook, he joins Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia, Alex Barre-Boulet, Owen Beck, Emil Heineman and Oliver Kapanen in battles for a third-line spot.

It’s the deepest group of forwards battling for third-line duty on the Canadiens in quite some time. Armia, Gallagher, Dvorak, and Anderson have all played top-nine roles effectively in the past, and Armia and Gallagher finished last season strongly. Gallagher had 11 goals in his final 39 games and Armia scored 13 goals in his last 45. If the two of them can notch 30-40 goals in bottom-six roles, the second line chips in anywhere from 150-180 points, and the first-liners average a point per game, scoring won’t be an issue for the Canadiens.

A lot will depend on good health and the young core taking another step. This group has the offensive potential to be in the top 16 in NHL goal-scoring this season, especially if Lane Hutson emerges as the power-play quarterback and piles up points like he did in college.

The Canadiens had one of the highest-scoring defence corps in the league last year despite most of them being young and inexperienced. Logic says that the group will only get better. Guhle has some untapped offensive potential and Hutson’s upside is sky high. Matheson may see a decline in his point totals but likely because Hutson will replace him on the first power play, and he’s fully capable of matching or bettering Matheson’s 62 points.

Don’t expect the eight-place Eastern Conference team needing only 91 points this season to get into the playoffs this time around. Buffalo, Ottawa, New Jersey, and Montreal will all be better, and there may well be a point drop from Tampa and Boston. The Canadiens had 76 points last season. They will likely need a 20-point improvement to make it this year.

Is it possible? Considering that they lost 27 games by one goal last season and there will be a major offensive boost from Laine, Dach, and Hutson to go along with one of the most promising U24 cores in the league that should only be better…the answer is yes.

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