2023-24 Season

Matheson’s Value

Mailloux – Comparisons and Expectations

As Logan Mailloux prepares to make his first appearance in an NHL game, it’s worth looking at his path to the NHL. The 6-3 220 defencemen certainly has the physical profile of an NHL defenceman and this season he will finish third among Laval Rocket players in points. But the ride has been bumpy. From 2020 to 2023, Mailloux played in only 75 OHL games. In what was to be his first full year in the OHL, the season was cancelled by Covid so he played 19 games in Sweden. In the next season, he was limited to 12 games and finally, in the 2022-23 season Mailloux was able to develop his skills under game conditions with 59 games with the London Knights. A comparison can be drawn with another former London Knights defenceman, Evan Bouchard. Both are big, highly-skilled offensive defencemen with great shots and excellent skating ability. And both have been criticized at times for their defensive flaws. Bouchard, however, had 223 games in the OHL to refine his game or roughly three times as many as Mailloux. In his first year in the OHL, Bouchard seven goals and 36 points while Mailloux posted 14 goals and 47 points despite having only one season of development in junior hockey under their belt. Will Mailloux develop into another Bouchard? Who knows? One game is too early to draw conclusions but Habs fans should expect to see a player who may not display his full set of skills in his first game, a player who may show flashes of offensive brilliance accompanied by defensive gaffes. Patience should be preached. Very few players have achieved what Mailloux has done with such limited development time. Even at the start next season, he may not win a regular job on the blueline but if his development continues, Canadiens’ fans could look forward to seeing a dominant player. Logan Mailloux is a unique player who has followed a unique path to his first NHL game.

Measuring Progress

Many will look at the standings and conclude that the Montreal Canadiens have made little progress this season. Looking beyond that single metric, however, shows that progress is being made. Goals against has improved by roughly ten percent this year despite the fact the team went with an inefficient three-goaltender rotation for the bulk of the season. Since that has been abandoned, the GAA for the team has improved. As a result, the goaltending situation looks to be more settled for the upcoming season. The young defence is gradually improving as well. On offense, production remains almost exactly where it was last season but even here, there is reason for optimism. The team has been without its second-leading point-getter, Kirby Dach, from last season. His return along with a full year from Alex Newhook bodes well for the offence. Faceoff efficiency has also improved, even without a significant contribution from Christian Dvorak who will have missed at least 52 games. Power play efficiency has improved modestly but the penalty kill has not. Both areas need improvement for the team to move forward. Internal development from young players should help the team to slightly improve all of these areas. A year of reasonably good health, somewhat of a bounce-back from a couple of veterans, and an off-season addition or two (prospect, trade, or free agent) could see the Canadiens become a much tougher opponent for the 2024-25 season. – Trask

Transition Time

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Goaltending – Shifting Emphasis?

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Drafting Prowess

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Super Sophomore

For the sake of argument let’s say that a player’s sophomore season begins after he has played a full NHL season. When it comes to Juraj Slafkovsky, he played only 39 games last season and didn’t reach the 82 game threshold until mid-January of this year. Since then, it what could be considered the start to his 2nd full NHL season, Slafkovsky has 10 goals and 16 assists in 31 games. At that pace, he would reach 69 points in an 82 game schedule and those numbers were almost entirely achieved as a teenager. It bodes well for the Montreal Canadiens and their young winger. – Trask

College Free Agents

At this time of the year there is always speculation about NCAA free agents who are legitimate pro prospects. Signing these free agents allows teams to add to their prospect pipeline without using a draft choice and because these players are older, NHL general managers will often have a better idea of the floor and/or ceiling. A handful of the top NCAA free agents are still involved in playoffs so the final destination for these players will remain unknown for a while. Some will make it directly to the NHL, others will require development in the minor pros before making the jump and still others will never make it to the NHL. But signing these players eats into the 50-contract limit and once that limit is reached, teams would be unable to offer contracts to unsigned draftees before July 1. It’s a bit of a chess game. Four teams are already at 49 contracts and five more are at 48 contracts. One way around it would be if the player was willing to sign an amateur tryout (ATO) with the AHL affiliate of an NHL team and then sign an NHL contract on or after July 1. For the record, the Canadiens have 45 players under NHL contract but may want to sign Lane Hutson, Luke Tuch, Jared Davidson, Cedrick Guindon and one or more of their European prospects. Of that group, only Davidson and Guindon require contracts before June 1 for the Canadiens to retain their rights. Will Gorton and Hughes be active in the college free-agent market? Time will tell. – Trask

Power Forward Famine

A quick scan of the Montreal Canadiens’ prospect pipeline reveals a lack of power forwards in the organization. Other than Luke Tuch, who may or may not sign after his college career, and Florian Xhekaj the Habs lack a true power forward prospect in their system. Xhekaj has really come into his own during the last half of the season and is somewhat of unicorn among Habs prospects. Emil Heineman may be the closest among the rest but he seems to lack the “bite” of a prototypical power forward. Last year Kent Hughes has shown a willingness to draft for need in the later rounds when he selected three goaltenders. Given that every successful team seems to have this type of player on their roster, will he take a similar approach at this draft to address the shortage of power forwards. – Trask

Habs Need Forward Thinking

This season’s edition of the Montreal Canadiens has made noticeable progress over last year’s team, even without 2nd line center Kirby Dach in the lineup. The next goal for the team is to challenge for a playoff spot. The question is, what will it take to do that? Various suggestions as to what is required have been put forward. Some want to improve the PP or improve the PK, others want a top 6 winger or a top pairing RD added to the mix, and the list goes on. Another way to look at it is by taking a big-picture view. For the sake of argument let the top 16 teams make the playoffs. If you look at those teams who are challenging for that last spot, they all have one thing in common. Their goal differential hovers around zero; they score approximately the same number of goals as they allow. The Canadiens are currently around -49. They sit 28th in goals for and 26th in goals against, so both departments need improvement. Adding 25 goals for and subtracting 25 goals against should put them right in the middle of a fight for a playoff spot. With those issues identified, general manager Kent Hughes can look for solutions. The return of Kirby Dach should help the offense, and the continued maturation of the young defense corps along with a more settled goaltending picture should help the defence. But more will be needed. What approach will Hughes take? We will learn more at the draft and in the offseason. – Trask