I watched Eeli Tolvanen play last night versus the Waterloo Black Hawks in Game 3 of the USHL semi-finals in a match Sioux City won 3-0. Tolvanen went pointless, and apart from one nice dangle in close that almost resulted in a goal he didn’t create much in the way of offensive chances.

Tolvanen threw a few hits tonight which was encouraging, however many of them were on his opposite wing and were hardly bruising checks…the most notable thing about them was that they left him out of position…and that was a common theme on the night.

Even though he’s a left winger he spent more time on the right side than the left… and that included in his own zone. He covered the right-side defenceman about 20 percent of the time, preferring instead to be running around chasing the puck. Luckily it did not result in any goals against, but it’s not hard to see why he’s not on the Musketeers’ penalty kill.

The other concern with his game is his skating. His stride is pretty sloppy…he flails around a lot, making his mechanics less than efficient. There will be lots of work to do gaining lower-body strength if he hopes to be a good skater in the NHL…he has decent agility and quickness but his stride is certainly not very powerful at this point, and when you’re undersized, it doesn’t get any easier at the NHL level as he’s not going to gain positional advantages with sheer brawn/strength… he will have to make a strong offseason commitment.

One USHL-based NHL scout weighed in on the draft-eligible winger last night:

“He’s competitive in the same way guys like Sprong and Ho Sang are,” said the scout. “Competitive to score, etc. but you’ll never see them compete to get a puck out of the defensive zone and they cheat like crazy. Coaches and teammates don’t like them but they play and produce some in NHL… time will tell if they win.”

As the season has gone on several things have stood out in regards to Swedish defence prospect Timothy Liljegren. There is no question that he is a natural, smooth skater, and that first and foremost is why scouts were so high on him going into the season. He also has good puck skills, and is able to dangle at the U18 level and without question he is one of the more skilled players in this draft.

What is disconcerting to me and many in the scouting community is his vision, sense, shot and decision-making, and they really lead me to wonder just how much offensive upside he will bring at the NHL level. I have a hard time envisioning him ever being a double digits goal scorer as he simply does not have the shot or instinct to find the open lanes to shoot at the opportune time. He takes wrist shots the majority of the time…I’m not sure how effective his slapshot is as it’s rarely utilized…and his shot lacks heavy velocity with rare exceptions

Equally as troubling are his passing skills in the offensive zone in particular…his overwhelming tendency is to shoot…the quicker the better. He rarely finds the best shooting location however…especially on the powerplay. If one wonders why Swedish U-18 coaches have stopped using him on the first powerplay in the past two tournaments…you have your answer, because he’s not creating offence with either his shot or his passes. Yesterday in one 40-second sequence versus Belarus Liljegren attempted six shots on goal, four which were blocked and two that were at least a foot wide. He has been one of the most frequent shooters in the tournament so far with 16 SOG, but that’s because he is ALWAYS looking to shoot even though his shot is often far from dangerous. I have no doubt that he leads all players in attempted shots in this tournament, almost all of them wrist shots from the blueline.

Another concern is when he has the puck in the defensive zone he invariably does one of two things..tries to carry it out of the zone or tries to make a two-line stretch pass. It is exceedingly rare to see Liljegren attempt a ten- or 20-foot pass or a dish laterally to his defence partner…and if you think he might ever consider reversing the puck or passing it backwards, you can forget it…his passes are going forward…and so are his rushes. One wonders if he needs to pull an Al Arbor and play with spectacles on….or at the very least convex mirrors on his faceshield, as it sure seems like he lacks peripheral vision.

He’s a half decent one-one-one defender thanks to a quick stick and excellent mobility..but when the puck starts getting passed around in his defensive zone he can get out of position and leave opponents open…once again because of his lack of vision and hockey sense. He is not being used by the Swedes on the penalty kill…and for a player who many still project to go in the top ten..if he’s not good/smart enough to play on the first PP or PK against fellow 16, 17 and 18-year-olds, what makes one think he’ll be able to do it at the NHL level? It’s no easy task teaching smarts and vision…they are pretty innate.

He’s not a big defender, so you aren’t looking at a player who is going to be a defensive bruiser that clears the front of the net and intimidates opponents. He competes okay, and he should become a reasonable defender one day if he can figure out how to read plays, cover the right opponent, and see the whole ice surface. A whole lot of maybes.

So it begs the question…just what will he be at the NHL level? If he doesn’t have the sense/vision//creativity/shot to be a ten-goal scorer or 45-point defenceman, and has enough question marks and lack of size to be a stalwart defender…you likely have a mobile puckhandler who at best might be a number three or four defenceman. That’s not top-ten material, and if you are worried about the mistakes, questionable passing and turnovers…may well not be enough to be a top-15 or even top-20 selection.

Liljegren still has a few games to make me change my mind in his upside, but he is quickly running out of time. I’d like nothing more than there to be another candidate for my final top-ten rankings…but after 20 or so disappointing viewings since the summer I’m not holding my breath.

Given that there is a huge divergence of opinion on Jarret Tyszka…ranging from scouts that like him in the first round to some who would be hesitant to pick him in the mid rounds – I decided to have an in-depth video look at him. I focused on the first game of Seattle’s WHL semi-final series versus Everett. I started watching him at about the 7 or 8-minute mark of the first period – here is a shift-by-shift breakdown of what I saw that was notable:

Very first shift I look at…D partner gives it to him..he skates up to his own blueline like a house on fire with it and head down, then realizes he can’t do anything, stops just as he’s going to get checked and softly dumps it to the Everett dman on the opposing blueline.

2nd shift – ….I’ll let the play-by-play commentator sum up the shift…. “Right side Tyszka….gives it right back to the Silvertips.”

3rd shift – Gets the puck in the O zone with a good chance…wrist shot four feet over the crossbar and two feet wide.

4th shift – Pressured an opponent in his own end..puck ended up going out of his zone…he chases it all the way down to behind the Everett net as the first forechecker…circles the Everett net…follows the puck on his way back to his own zone a line behind it and out of the play as a forward covered for him. Looked fast doing it though…he can skate.

5th shift – Last 30 secs on the pp..made three short passes in the EVT zone that weren’t intercepted. No mistakes…but nothing noteworthy.

6th shift – Nothing noteworthy happened good or bad..deflected a shot out of play.

7th shift – Nothing happened…he was there. No offensive or defensive plays.

8th shift – Strand played with his regular D partner Hyman

9th shift – Touched the puck once…puck came to him at his blueline…pass went off the Everett player pressuring him..turned over but nothing bad happened.

10th shift – Went back behind his net to retrieve the puck..skated around his net and tried to keep it from the forechecker but lost it..puck was fed into the slot but no great scoring chance…turnover. Puck battle with his D partner in his own one on his left side…instead of staying on the right hand side of the net stands about ten feet away from his partner on the same side..leaving the entire right side exposed..nothing bad happens.

11th shift – With Bear. Everett comes down…he backs up right to his goalie…is on the same side as Bear and ends up with his back turned facing the goalie. Two Everett forwards on his side left alone…rebound comes to Tuololla..he scores with Tyz still turned around facing his goalie. inexplicably. 1-1. Next shift Bear plays with Hyman.

Played last 15 second of the second…lost a puck battle behind his net..Everett ran out of time

13th shift – puck takes a funny bounce.behind his own net..puck comes to the front of the net with goalie out..Tyszka was there..lost the puck again behind his own net..got it back and got it to a teammates…uneventful other than that.

14th shift – Tyszka gets the puck deep in his own..moves slowly with it and doesn’t pass..Everrett fwd takes it from him…D partner rescues him. Puck comes to him behind his own net..gets bumped off it…Everett gets it…takes a shot on net.

15th shift – Nothing happened….never had the puck.

16th shift – Offensive zone faceoff won back to him..went over his stick..D partner quelled the chance as he skated back behind the play. Gets puck in off/ zone at the blueline..takes a wrist shot that never finds the net.

17th shift – Seattle up 2-1 late. Everett gets puck along the boards..he leaves the front of the net open and stands high in the slot..leaving forwards to cover the front of the net…puck comes to Seattle..he takes off like a bat out of hell ahead of the other four teammates..don’t even see him in the screen he’s so far ahead of the play hoping for a pass..this is with his team “protecting” a one-goal lead…it was quite mind boggling. Seen him do it before as well.

18th shift – Puck comes to him in own zone..tries to head behind the net..gets it checked off his stick three times.manages to club it over to the boards where luckily a teammates gets it..certainly wasn’t a purposeful ‘pass’..more a play of desperation.

19th shift – Puck comes to him in own zone and once again just hung onto it until it was checked off his stick..swung it away from the opponent and it ended up behind the net..where he lost it again Gets the puck…and often does nothing with it until it’s checked off of his stick. This happened at least eight times. He had two shifts the last 11 minutes.

PP time – 30 secs at the end of one PP
PK time – None
Shots – None
Scoring chances created – None
Plus/minus – He was -1 in a game his team gave up one goal.
Turnovers – If you count ones where he ended up knocking the puck back off the Everett players after he lost possession…more than a dozen. At least six times he took the puck below his goal line and stood there with it until it was taken off his stick…simply handed it to the Everett dmen three times…another three times his own zone passes were intercepted, three other occasions as he glided in his own zone with it he had it stripped.

Draft potential – This is not the first time he’s had a bad game..there have been more bad ones than good for me in the 15 or so I’ve watched. Major issue with his hockey sense….it’s a big issue with me. I would not draft him in the top-three rounds. I would not draft him at all, frankly, as he’ll be gone by the time I’d consider him. Someone will pick him based on his size and skating higher than he should be.

Over the past decade at numerous times I have had draft followers mention that such-and-such would or wouldn’t be a good fit as a draft selection because they shoot left or right. I have never in the past ten years factored the way a player shoots into my draft evaluations or mock draft scenarios. To me it would be destructive to choose a player you don’t like as much as another because he shoots a certain way – you are not drafting for tomorrow, you are drafting for 5-10 years down the road.

I was sitting with two high-ranking NHL scouts on Sunday and even though I knew the answer I asked them anyway if they ever consider which way a player shoots….I was given a look of incredulity.

“You aren’t looking to fill out your roster tomorrow,” said one of the scout while the other was chuckling. “That’s what fans don’t get. You are drafting for the future. You have no idea who will be on the team when that player makes it. No way you pass over someone you like the most because of the way he shoots.”

What if the Columbus Blue Jackets had used that philosophy going into the 2015 NHL draft? They had high hopes for Ryan Murray as a very recent top-two pick being a top-four dman along with Jack Johnson on the left side..backed up ably by Kevin Connauton..all left-hand shots. Their pick comes up and they are looking at Zach Werenski…but…lo and behold..he also shoots left. Why don’t they pass on Werenski and draft the most highly regarded right-handed defencemen Noah Juulsen or Jeremy Roy? Or take a forward like Lawson Crouse instead. Are they better off today in any way??

If two defenceman are dead even in your ranking and the club has an embarrassment of young riches on one side or another with the big club..then perhaps you take the defenceman that plays on the other side, but one never knows what the defence will look like in five years..players you think will develop into top four dmen often don’t, players leave by free agency and in deals..so it really isn’t something that is a priority discussion in a draft room.

Look at the Habs when they chose Juulsen – since then there have been 4-5 defencemen added to the roster and they also drafted another one even higher…by the time he is playing regularly the Habs may have one defenceman that was on their roster when he was drafted, so why would it have mattered which way he shoots?

Draft picks are assets first and foremost. Why did Nashville pick Seth Jones even though they were stacked on defence? He held the most future value as the BPA in their estimation..and he ended up landing him their first-line center when Jones was dealt. Draft picks aren’t always for life..or tomorrow.

Tri-Cities season is over and it was mostly disappointing for draft-eligible prospects. Kyle Olson got his first and only point tonight on a goal, Rasmussen missed the playoffs with a broken scaphoid bone, Juuso Valimaki had just one one assist and struggled defensively at times. After a 90-point regular season..once the checking got tighter Morgan Geekie was essentially a non-factor in the playoffs scoring one goal in the four-game sweep. A team that won 41 regular season games facing a Seattle team without Barzal should not have been swept, and a grand total of three points from three DE’s that had 208 between them in the regular season didn’t help matters. If Geekie hoped to be drafted in the top-four rounds…these playoffs struck a blow to that dream, and that’s also the case with Valimaki going top 12 and Olson in the top 70.  None of those things are as likely to happen.

Urho Vaakanainen played a regular shift today in a big SM-Liiga playoff game for JYP with the series tied 2-2.  The coaches had no issues playing him regularly in such an important contest, and he didn’t disappoint..almost ending the game in overtime when he pinched in and took a shot on goal from ten feet out while wide open in the slot, then getting the puck over to a teammate when the rebound came to him which resulted in the game winner.    One concern from the U-20’s was that Vaakanainen seemed to be hesitant to try anything offensively, so to see that confidence playing against men in overtime of a tied series was an indication he will indeed have the mindset to contribute to the offence at the pro level.

I have great respect for my NHL scouting contacts and consider them to be among the very best talent evaluators on the planet. There are occasions when I disagree with one of their opinions, however, even when I’m only seeing a player on video, and one such instance this season concerns Seattle defenceman Jarret Tyszka.

A former first-round pick of the Thunderbirds, the 6-2.25 blueliner has decent puck skills and has good mobility, so it’s easy to see why, on the surface at least, there is intrigue in the scouting fraternity.

What I have seen far too often in my ten or so viewings of him are issues with his defensive hockey sense in particular, and I have relayed those feelings to a scouting contact who feels differently. He sees him as a surefire top 50 prospect… and last night got the chance to see him once again.

The issues I’ve had in his game were evident again last night in the video I studied. In his own end I have had some concerns when he gets stuck watching the puck and leaving guys alone or gets caught out of position…he also makes some poor puck decisions under pressure, like in the first period when he got the puck behind the goal line and decided the best route was to head to the front of his own net…he had the puck stripped instantly and came very close to allowing Seattle’s first goal. Later on at the end of the second period while leading 2-0 he decided to try the same thing…carry the puck in front of his own net..and just as he was once again about to be checked he threw the puck blindly to the point…where it was intercepted and quickly ended up in Seattle’s net to cut the lead to 2-1.

At the start of the third period Seattle took two quick penalties and Tyszka never saw the ice until eight minutes had expired. He did not play on the penalty kill last night…the coaches instead preferring to exhaust their top guys instead of letting him see the ice in a defensive situation..a clear signal that I’m not the only one who has had some misgivings about his own-zone play.

He got a secondary assist on the power play in the first period and another one in the last 20 seconds on the power play with his team up 4-2…but there was nothing he did in this game or any others I’ve seen that suggests he has the skill/vision/passing skills to be anything but a second power play guy, or an offensive defenceman in the NHL. Here is what I wrote about his game:

” I see too many mistakes and too little defined NHL role. What is he? He’s not a shutdown guy…they won’t let him near the ice on the PK and with good reason as he makes too many errors in his own end. He’s not a big offensive guy..no elite vision or puck/passing skills…he’s not going to be a 10-15 goal guy at the NHL level IMO either. He has nine goals in 102 WHL games and that is a fair representation on his goal-scoring upside ..maybe he can develop into a second power play unit guy. Defensively…he never saw the ice the first 7 mins of the third period..in large part because they killed two power plays. Nursing a one-goal lead Tyszka played one shift in the first half of the third. We saw why coaches were hesitant to have him in a position where he would have to deal with a lot of pressure…as he has a tendency to turn the puck over..often because of a quick no-look pass, but also with ill-advised forays in front of his own net that backfire. I get it that he’s (almost) 6-3 and can skate…I have seen good plays from him and he is not without some skill or smarts.  I can’t help that think, however, that he could just as easily bust as become a top 4 dman.”

I will get a couple more looks at him..I am by no means adamant in my opinion of him as I respect this scout’s eye, especially given that he’s watching him live… and there’s always the possibility that I have been too harsh with him. You need to find the proper balance between performance and projecting a player’s upside..sometimes that perception can get a bit skewed one way or another. As is often the case when there are such discrepancies in what I see and what NHL scouts see…I try to find a happy medium as I don’t consider my video evaluations to be infallible. My goal is to produce the best possible draft list..and that means compromises, changes, concessions..and also at times sticking to my guns. It is an extremely inexact science…and I love it.

The two teenaged forwards on Brynas have really moved up the pecking order in the SHL playoffs.  Jesper Boqvist is really wheeling today…it looks like he’s gotten even quicker since he played for Timra…a very fast pace and he’s keeping up no problem. Working hard on the forecheck and getting back defensively no problem.

He’s on a line with Linus Olund, a 1997- born center, who has been playing quite well in the playoff games I’ve watched…they’ve been one of Brynas’ top two line in the playoffs, starting out as the fourth line, but playing like a second-line in term of ice time by the third game of their series vs. Linkoping.

Olund with two goals and four points through three games, double their next leading scorer. Despite playing less than ten minutes per game and missing 13 games at the start of the season when he was still in junior, Olund had eight goals and seven assists to finish top 12 in team scoring. His points per minutes were top eight on the team; projected over the full season Olund was top five in points per minute played. He keeps playing like this he may get some draft consideration…still just 19.

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With Hischier’s recent drop in production one wondered if perhaps he was hitting a wall..then I looked at the video from his March 15 game versus PEI…and the Nico we’ve all come to love was in full display.  We saw in the first two shifts why he’s ranked number one on our list…terrific speed, skill. smarts, defence and vision all quite evident in the game’s first five minutes.  He had an assist, and with any kind of finish would have had three in his first two shifts.  Makes passes so quickly and skillfully you sometimes wondered if he intended on making them..but having seen it all season long you know it’s not luck or a fluke.  A terrific first period from the Moooseheads’ center, who had three assists in the game, but none were more impressive than the second one, where he showed off his terrific burst, puck protection, vision and playmaking.  That play alone summed up why Hischier is in serious contention to be picked first overall in the draft.

Isaac Ratcliffe has looked better again the last 3-4 games after a lull. Like him when he’s moving his feet and competing…certainly has some puck skills for a big guy…good hands.

Watched Valimaki again…he is not very agile without the puck..but with it..he makes those shifts that throw his opponent off…I guess it’s his pivots without the puck more than anything that are the concern…but he can move laterally okay when he has the black biscuit… it’s when he’s defending that he gets caught flat-footed at times.

I watched Bowers versus Tolvanen tonight…clear edge to Bowers. Tolvanen started the game with three cross ice pass turnovers in his own zone…which never endeared him to scouts. Far too much standing around…while Bowers was the opposite…as always he was working and moving his feet. creating chances with his effort and speed. You could have put a pedometer measuring feet on Tolvanen and one measuring yards on Bowers and Bowers would still have had more clicks. Bowers a main penalty killer and power play guy…must have played 20 minutes. Tolvanen bothers me away from the puck a lot of the time…seems to be into the game at times and not at others..waiting for the puck to magically arrive on his stick. Bowers the better skater, harder worker, bigger, more physical and more competitive, plays more of a pro game. much more consistent. Tolvanen has a better shot and puck skills….but not going to matter if he isn’t competing. Today I would pick Bowers ahead of him. 

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Watched Glass last night…beast mode again. He could have three points every night…he may get 150 next year Skating looked okay..and really responsible at both ends. He has to be in the top three mix…keeps doing this in the playoffs and who knows..a fellow socuts’ point point is very valid in 8 guys being in the mix for third overall…and he’s certainly one of them. Seen him score some nice goals so not just a playmaker either. More consistent and better defensively than Rasmussen at this point..better playmaker…pick your poison.  Either would be outstanding picks at 5 or 6.

Liam Hawel is Guelph’s first-line center now..quite a jump from fourth line winger in Soo…you like to see improvement and this year he’s the CHL poster boy…really starting to look like Arnprior is going to finally develop an NHL player for the first time since Danny Fridgen. He gets stronger and he’s going to be a powerful skater – he’s huge, smart, competes hard, decent vision, can handle the puck…starting to look like he’d be a nice pick at the end of the second round or early third at the latest.

Jason Robertson’s shot/release aren’t far off of Owen Tippet’s…. deadly from 25 feet out..about the 25th he’s scored there.  Puck skills and ability to protect it are good too..and his vision and passing.  How much better is his skating than Jonah Gadjovich…30 spots…50 spots? Guess that’s what needs to be figured out, some parallels though.. Gadjovich more of a garbage goal guy and a little grittier, Robertson more offensive upside and skates better. Robertson creates more on his own…Gad has better linemates A bit like Lucic without the fists..which you don’t need any more. I’d be a little wary taking Robertson in the first. Lots to like…but that skating is a concern.  He’s likely a 30-40 pick at this time.

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First time seeing Peterborough in months…Gallant has really improved, playing a ton in all situations, decent on the pk…18 pts in last 16 games  Decent size, skates okay…has some jam.  He’s really good on faceoffs.  Looks like a top 80 pick at least.

A better game from Kristian Vesalainen last night, but neither Finn forward (Eeli Tolvanen) has looked like a top-ten guy so far.  They are not going to the scoring areas, nor have they been dangerous. After Hischier, the best DE forward has been Lias Andersson.

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If Honka was a top 15 pick what does that make Makar?  His skating and puck skills are a treat to watch.  I loved him at last year’s tournament too…arguably better than Fabbro and Cholowski were. He went to the wrong junior camp – should have been at the WJC.

I haven’t seen much offence from Filip Westerlund yet but taking care of his own end with smarts and skating. Will need to show some offensive skills to go top three rounds at his size I guess..but impressive that he’s on top pairing on a SHL team with two losses in Frolunda..and doesn’t look out of place. He wasn’t as effective as the game went on and he was subjected to a bit more pressure, especially when he wasn’t teamed with Tammenes. His size defensively will be the issue.

NHL teams might want to keep an eye on Frolunda dman Henrik Tommenes…third in SHL scoring with 25 points in 27 games.  A 6-1 defenceman who skates well. and competing okay defensively.  Vancouver gave up on him pretty quickly.

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I know Heponiemi is just 5-10 150 pounds.but man…he’s a dandy little player. Anywhere after 50 IMO that kid might end up being a great pick. One of the top skaters in the draft, especially in terms of edge work…he competes and is not afraid either. He makes a great behind the net pass back across the grain as he’s circling..seen him pick up several assists with it now. I don’t disagree with CS’s decision to upgrade him from a C to a B.

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I like Liam Hawel’s upside..hope he gets traded…should be a third line center. Update January – Got my wish with his move to Guelph but he hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity as of yet. Perhaps he’s a little out of shape given his lack of ice time in the Soo..will have to get in shape quickly or in danger of being a later draft pick.