Hockey fans are often reminiscing about draft picks their favourite teams made that didn’t pan out. There is a tendency to focus on poor picks in particular, especially ones made by their team, and to conclude that, because every first-round pick didn’t prosper, their club’s scouting staff is particularly incompetent.
With that in mind, I decided to dive deeply into how teams fared in the first round specifically at the draft table over a ten-year span from 2007-16. I used 2016 as the cutoff date as I wanted to include as recent a draft as possible as there is a tendency to live in the present…and scouting staffs are constantly being overturned. Since picks made in the past four drafts are just now getting their NHL careers started, it didn’t make sense to include any of the drafts from 2017-2020. Even including drafts from 2013 to 2017 make this less than imperfect as there are still varying degrees of players just now starting to make an impact at the NHL level, but that is at least partially addressed with the inclusion of points-per-game as one of the categories that were studied and included in the final results.
There are, of course, always exceptions, and when delving into this project, I soon came to realize that there is no perfect formula for ranking how teams fared at the draft table. Are career points, games played, or points-per-game the definitive answer on how good a player is at the NHL level? Of course not. Neither is starts or wins when it comes to goaltenders.
it is also difficult to precisely handicap a team’s average drafting position. There are many variants – when the picks were made, the strength of that particular draft, how many points players picked at a certain point usually get in their careers, and so on.
It is also difficult to judge the value of a defenceman versus a forward by simply comparing their career point totals. As I was doing this I soon came to realize that comparing the drafts strictly by games played, career points and points per game averages did not do justice to the teams that picked more defencemen than others, or where they picked in the draft, so I also came up with formulas to handicap teams that drafted more forwards than defencemen, and who drafted lower down, and less often in the top ten, on average.
You obviously can’t also include goalie’s assists versus skaters’ points, so I counted one goalie start as two games played, and a win as two points to fairly equate a goalie’s value to that of a skater. A very good NHL season for a goalie is 40 wins, which translates to 80 points in this study. That also happens to be a very good season for a skater when he hits 80 points. Fifty wins in a season are exceptional, just as is scoring 100 points in an NHL season, so the stat equations, while by no means perfect, are at least close. It’s not like there was an abundance of goalies picked in the first round from 2007-16 either, so the effect one way or another on the final stats was minimal.
You also can’t statistically define how good a player is defensively, or their leadership qualities, or how their physical presence or heart may benefit a club, so as I said at the outset, this study is by no means a definitive reflection on which teams drafted the best.
By the end of this project, however, as I added categories I thought needed to be included to provide a fair analysis, I was comfortable in publishing this study to give people an idea of how teams did at the draft table from 2007-16. I discovered as I added more categories that the large majority of teams got very close to one another in final totals, and that, for me, added more credibility to the study as well. At the end of the day; most NHL teams aren’t that far apart in draft results with the exception of the first three or four at the top and bottom. Every NHL team has had first-round misses in the past 15 years; it’s pretty much impossible to be perfect in drafting 17 and 18-year-old hockey players.
In my opinion, the most pertinent stats in trying to judge draft success in the first round are average drafting position, points per pick, games played per pick, points per game, number of top ten picks, the number of selections that were defencemen, and percentage of picks that aren’t playing in the NHL.
Why is draft position so pertinent? Well – These stats reveal that pretty clearly:
Picks 1-5 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 3687 | 2256 |
| 2008 | 4049 | 2211 |
| 2009 | 3926 | 2859 |
| 2010 | 3294 | 2063 |
| 2011 | 3013 | 1873 |
| 2012 | 1891 | 883 |
| 2013 | 2596 | 1856 |
| 2014 | 1500 | 1158 |
| 2015 | 1733 | 1504 |
| 2016 | 1119 | 830 |
| Total | 23,146 | 17,493 |
| Average | 462* | 350** |
Picks 6-10 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2812 | 1798 |
| 2008 | 2628 | 1269 |
| 2009 | 2123 | 973 |
| 2010 | 2266 | 1138 |
| 2011 | 3009 | 1831 |
| 2012 | 1845 | 682 |
| 2013 | 2308 | 1245 |
| 2014 | 1566 | 803 |
| 2015 | 1616 | 954 |
| 2016 | 1211 | 693 |
| Total | 21,384 | 11,386 |
| Average | 428 | 228 |
Picks 11-15 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2974 | 1304 |
| 2008 | 1663 | 915 |
| 2009 | 2527 | 811 |
| 2010 | 1790 | 830 |
| 2011 | 1376 | 587 |
| 2012 | 2143 | 869 |
| 2013 | 1499 | 739 |
| 2014 | 1360 | 715 |
| 2015 | 673 | 263 |
| 2016 | 504 | 211 |
| Total | 16,503 | 7,244 |
| Average | 330 | 145 |
Picks 16-20 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 733 | 160 |
| 2008 | 2178 | 749 |
| 2009 | 1802 | 771 |
| 2010 | 1553 | 813 |
| 2011 | 1574 | 474 |
| 2012 | 2132 | 1306 |
| 2013 | 1245 | 388 |
| 2014 | 1104 | 541 |
| 2015 | 1092 | 720 |
| 2016 | 523 | 166 |
| Total | 13,936 | 6,088 |
| Average | 279 | 122 |
Picks 21-25 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2217 | 1175 |
| 2008 | 901 | 575 |
| 2009 | 1622 | 574 |
| 2010 | 1681 | 585 |
| 2011 | 465 | 105 |
| 2012 | 1147 | 371 |
| 2013 | 690 | 260 |
| 2014 | 1237 | 787 |
| 2015 | 1049 | 636 |
| 2016 | 226 | 56 |
| Total | 11,235 | 5,124 |
| Average | 225 | 102 |
Picks 26-30 Games Played & Point Totals
| Draft Year | Games Played | Point Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 1480 | 709 |
| 2008 | 1553 | 859 |
| 2009 | 968 | 423 |
| 2010 | 1880 | 1072 |
| 2011 | 1358 | 708 |
| 2012 | 1046 | 372 |
| 2013 | 996 | 388 |
| 2014 | 553 | 208 |
| 2015 | 570 | 183 |
| 2016 | 467 | 123 |
| Total | 10,871 | 5,045 |
| Average | 217 | 101 |
A team picking in the top five between 2007-16 on average got a player who have produced 350 points on average. A pick from 26-30? They have averaged 101 points. Thus – a player selected in the top five of the draft can be expected to be more than three times as productive as a player chosen at the end of the first round.
In coming up with point totals for each team, I used the following equations.
A team’s first-round draft position on average was multiplied by 10. Using the team adjudged to have drafted the best in this period – the St. Louis Blues – as a template; their average drafting position was 18.8…so that’s 188 points accumulated. The dropoff in both production and quality of prospect is severe after the top ten as the above numbers demonstrate, so clubs were deducted ten points for every top ten pick they had between 2007-16, starting with a base of 100. So the Blues get 70 points for having three top ten picks, Columbus gets 40 points for having six top-ten picks, and so on.
Games played per pick were multiplied by .30. So the Blues’ 382 games per first-round pick equal 115 points. Points per pick were added equally. St. Louis averaged 216 points per pick…so 216 points are added. Points per game average are multiplied by 200. So the Blues’ picks that averaged .57 ppg get 114 points.
I gave each team 30 points for every defenceman drafted, as they simply can’t be compared equally in career points and points per game as forwards. This most fairly balanced the discrepancy in point totals between a forward and defenceman – as forwards on average in the NHL score 88 percent more points than defencemen. A team that drafted five defencemen in the first round over that ten-year span got 150 extra points; a team that drafted one defenceman got 30 points. Again; there is no perfect number for judging this, but the resultant point totals when tallied were similar sums to career games-per-pick totals and points per game totals.
I included points-per-game to help balance out the difference between picks from the start of this study and ones made in the last few years. Obviously – a player drafted in 2007-08 that has played regularly will have more points than one chosen in 2015-16, so points per game for every teams’ picks were multiplied to help compensate for the discrepancy. It was at this point that I realized there was no category that touched on draft misses in any regard. I decided to add one final category that was pretty straightforward. If a team had picked ten times between 2007-16, and three of those picks aren’t currently on any NHL teams’ rosters, I divided the number of current NHL players (seven) by the number of picks (ten) to arrive at a percentage of 70. Seventy points were thus added to that team’s total. This category pays heed to the future – a team with just 50 percent of its picks playing in the NHL won’t likely be collecting as many points in future years as a team with 90 percent of its first-round picks currently employed in the NHL.
After ranking all of the teams based on those seven criterion…I took two of the teams (Edmonton and Montreal) ranked closely together but with quite different numbers in terms of points per pick, draft position, and defencemen picked. When factoring in precise percentages for draft position and defencemen picked…the adjusted points per pick backed up where each team was ranked – and you will see that fully explained below the team rankings.
Without futher ado (and explanation), here are the final result of the study:
1. St. Louis Blues
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 10 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4656 | N/A |
| Points | 2510 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 18.1 | 181 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 466 | 140 |
| PPP | 251 | 251 |
| PPG | 0.54 | 108 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 80 |
| NHL | 0.80 | 80 |
| Total | 970 |
No team drafted better than St. Louis in the draft’s first round from 2007-16. Quality, quantity and depth while selecting in the second half of the first round more often than not vaulted the Blues to the top of the league, and it wasn’t even very close. St. Louis was the only club to crack the 920 point mark, and it’s due in part to some terrific drafting between 2007 and 2010. St. Louis selected Lars Eller, Ian Cole, David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo, Jaden Schwartz and Vadim Tarasenko in that period, and all have played more than 500 NHL games. Considering that Pietrangelo was the only one picked in the top 12, that is outstanding drafting unequaled by any other team in that timespan. It mattered little that the Blues picked 18th overall on average – the Blues were just as successful drafting in the mid teens or 20’s as most teams were picking from five to 15. The club really benefited from having three first-round picks in the first year of this study – 2007 – and all of them have had productive careers. No team accumulated more games played in one draft year than St. Louis in 2007. To date, Eller, Cole and Perron have played 2264 NHL games…almost half of the team’s overall total. They’ve also produced more than 1000 points.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3613 | N/A |
| Points | 2190 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 13,8 | 138 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 401 | 120 |
| PPP | 243 | 243 |
| PPG | 0.606 | 121 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.78 | 78 |
| Total | 910 |
Much like with Patrick Kane in Chicago, Tampa’s selections of Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman had significant impacts on the Lightning’s final ranking despite being selected so high in the draft. Also, like Kane; it helps that both were selected at the start of the period researched, so both teams benefited more from those high selections for this ranking than did Toronto or Edmonton for picking Matthews and McDavid in the final two seasons. The fact is, though, that Stamkos has averaged more than a point-per-game for his career, and Hedman has been one of the highest-scoring defencemen in the league for the past decade. All that said; this is certainly one ranking that benefited from the club having two top-two picks before 2010 that were no-brainers. Brett Connolly and Slater Koekkoek were by no means exceptional top-ten selections, and Tony Deangelo has produced, but he is not even in the league right now so his “value” is exaggerated. The best pick value-wise was their Russian goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy is the second-best player statistically from the first round of the 2012 draft with 186 NHL wins, which prorated to 372 points. While Vladislav Namestnikov peaked at a young age and has struggled to regain his early NHL form in recent years, he has the third-most points among all players chosen between 11 and 30 in the 2011 draft. What makes this ranking even more impressive is that the Lightning made outstanding second and third-round picks as well in Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. The Lighting without question were one of the better drafting teams from Rounds 1-7 from 2007 until today.
3. Washington Capitals
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 11 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4518 | N/A |
| Points | 2458 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 19.6 | 196 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 410 | 123 |
| PPP | 223 | 223 |
| PPG | 0.55 | 110 |
| Dmen Picked | 3 | 90 |
| NHL | 0.73 | 73 |
| Total | 905 |
Alex Ovechkin and Nik Backstrom were franchise cornerstones acquired with top-six picks in an era before the starting point of this draft study but the Capitals have shown since then that they are fully capable of finding draft gems later in the draft as well. Washington drafted John Carlson, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, Filip Forsberg and Tom Wilson with picks outside of the top ten between 2008-12. Even more impressively; Carlson and Kuznetsov were selected after pick 25; those are the moments in a franchise’s history that go a long way towards building a Stanley Cup contender. It’s not like the sage picks stopped in 2012, either. From 2013 to 2015, the Capitals selected Andre Burakovsky, Jakub Vrana and Ilya Samsonov in the first round. Burakovsky – selected 23rd overall – is the top point producer from the second half of the first round of the 2013 draft. Samsonov wasn’t chosen until 22nd overall in the 2015 draft, yet is already considered to be one of the best young goalies in the NHL.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3106 | N/A |
| Points | 2194 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 19.6 | 196 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 345 | 104 |
| PPP | 244 | 244 |
| PPG | 0.71 | 142 |
| Dmen Picked | 1 | 40 |
| NHL | 0.67 | 67 |
| Total | 873 |
Even though he was a first-overall selection, there is no doubt that Patrick Kane is the main reason why Chicago finished top four in this study. His 1018 games played and 1078 points are the most for any player drafted since 2007. What really puts it in perspective is that Kane has scored more points than all of the first-round prospects combined on five NHL teams. The Vancouver Canucks have made 12 first-round picks since Kane was drafted in 2007. Kane has more career points than all of them combined. Teuvo Teravainen may have been taken 18th overall in the much-derided 2012 draft but he has collected the fifth-most points of any first-round pick. Phil Danault, selected 26th overall, is third-best in career points among all players picked after 15 in the 2011 draft, and Kevin Hayes is fourth-best in career points among all players picked after 16 in the 2010 draft despite being picked 24th overall. Those four picks are a major reason why the Hawks are near the top of the rankings.
5. New York Rangers
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 5* | N/A |
| Games Played | 2228 | N/A |
| Points | 1053 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 18.4 | 184 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 446 | 134 |
| PPP | 211 | 211 |
| PPG | 0.42 | 84 |
| Dmen Picked | 3 | 90 |
| NHL | 0.80 | 80 |
| Total | 873 |
Quantity does not always equal quality. One wouldn’t equate the Glen Sather era with good first-round drafting because he usually dealt away the team’s first-round picks, but when head scout Gordie Clark had the rare luxury of stepping up to the podium to announce a first-round selection, the club usually made a solid selection. Eighty percent of the Rangers’ picks have played at least 350 games despite none of them being selected in the top 14. The only “bust” among New York’s five picks was Dylan McIlrath, who also happened to be the only one picked in the top ten. If there is one caveat that can be attached to this ranking, it is that the club had a fairly small sample size. It’s not like the club has been a long-time contender thanks to the draft; more of a case of them staying competitive despite Sather’s predilection to deal high picks. It should be noted that Alexei Cherepanov was excluded from this draft. He passed away tragically before ever having a chance to play in the NHL.
6. Los Angeles Kings
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 7 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3246 | N/A |
| Points | 1521 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 14 | 140 |
| Top 10 Picks | 3 | 70 |
| GPP | 463 | 139 |
| PPP | 217 | 217 |
| PPG | 0.47 | 94 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.86 | 86 |
| Total | 866 |
This ranking is especially impressive when you consider that it doesn’t include Anze Kopitar; one of the best value picks from the past 20 NHL drafts as a superstar 11th overall selection. Brayden Schenn and Drew Doughty ended up being terrific choices despite being picked so highly. You want consistency at the draft table? Eighty-six percent of the club’s picks from 2007-16 have played at least 300 games. Adrian Kempe and Tanner Pearson, as it turns out, were great value picks at the end of the 2012 and 2014 drafts. Pearson has played more career games than any pick taken from 18 to 30 in the 2012 draft. The Kings were the only team to select more defencemen than forwards, and that helped bumped them ahead of a couple of teams. Thomas Hickey took some time to develop but a pick that at first looked like a bust has ended up being at least satisfactory even if he was taken a little too high. The same can be said of Derek Forbort, who did not become an NHL regular before the age of 24. Ideally; you want a top-15 pick contributing to your team by the age of 22 at the latest, especially in the salary cap era.
7. Anaheim Ducks
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 13 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4443 | N/A |
| Points | 1969 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 20.8 | 208 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 340 | 102 |
| PPP | 151 | 151 |
| PPG | 0.44 | 88 |
| Dmen Picked | 5 | 150 |
| NHL | 0.77 | 77 |
| Total | 856 |
Anaheim’s top-ten draft ranking is in large part due to some terrific picks used on defencemen. Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Shea Theodore, and, to a lesser extent, Jake Gardiner, were all solid picks that solidified Anaheim’s draft ranking. Fowler may have been the third defencemen selected in 2010 (12th overall), but he’s proven to be the top defender from his draft class. Lindholm and Theodore are also arguably top-three defencemen from the first round of their draft years, and that’s especially impressive for Theodore considering that he was picked 26th overall. Rickard Rakell and Kyle Palmieri were both chosen at the end of the first round, and they’ve proven to be very sage selections as well. After missing on Logan MacMillan in 2007, the Ducks made nine consecutive selections that have played at least 173 NHL games, and the three picks they made from 2014-16 – Max Jones. Jacob Larsson and Max Steel, will all easily eclipse the 173-game mark as well. That’s consistency.
8. Montreal Canadiens
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 10 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3053 | N/A |
| Points | 1500 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 18 | 180 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 305 | 92 |
| PPP | 150 | 150 |
| PPG | 0.49 | 98 |
| Dmen Picked | 5 | 150 |
| NHL | 0.80 | 80 |
| Total | 830 |
The Canadiens didn’t pick in the top 12 of many drafts, but Trevor Timmins was able to find above-average NHL players when they did. Ryan McDonagh, Alex Galchenyuk and Michael Sergachev were all solid top-12 selections, and McDonagh is thought by many to be the top defenceman from his draft class. Chosen 22nd overall in the 2007 draft, Max Pacioretty is the second-best goalscorer from 2007, and showing few signs of slowing down. A solid games-per-pick average despite drafting later than most teams on average, a lack of top-ten picks, and half of their selections being defencemen were also factors in landing Montreal a spot in the top ten. The draft record would look even better if Noah Juulsen’s career hadn’t been put in jeopardy by a puck fracturing his orbital bone and inflicting nerve damage. If you take away the McDonagh and Pacioretty picks, Montreal’s ranking would take a major hit, but the same can be said of most teams in the top 15 as each has a couple of standout picks that boost the ranking. Habs’ fans are quick to point out the misses but the fact remains that only seven clubs have a higher percentage of first-round picks on current NHL rosters.
9. Edmonton Oilers
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 13 | N/A |
| Games Played | 6158 | N/A |
| Points | 3877 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 8.5 | 85 |
| Top 10 Picks | 9 | 10 |
| GPP | 474 | 142 |
| PPP | 298 | 298 |
| PPG | 0.63 | 126 |
| Dmen Picked | 2 | 60 |
| NHL | 0.77 | 77 |
| Total | 828 |
The Oilers were certainly one of the tougher teams to rank – there was no other team where draft position was so pertinent, and if anything, they weren’t penalized enough. They most certainly lucked out by having four number-one picks and the opportunity to draft Connor McDavid. The only thing that helped balance out his selection was that it has been relatively recent – if he had been picked in 2007 he’d likely have about 1500 career points and Edmonton would be in the top five thanks to him alone. Along with the first overall selections… Sam Gagner, Darnell Nurse and Leon Draisaitl all helped Edmonton achieve the highest career point total (3887) among all 30 NHL teams, with Colorado being the only other club within shouting distance. To the club’s credit, however, the scouting staff did draft well on the rare occasions that it picked in the second half of the draft, choosing Oscar Klefbom, Riley Nash and Jordan Eberle between 19-22 in their draft years. Those were solid value picks. You always get penalized for taking top-25 picks that bust, and Edmonton had two of those in Nail Yakupov and Alex Plante. Yakupov is the one everyone remembers, of course, because he was the first pick in the 2012 draft. In the Oilers’ defence; it was not a great draft year and most teams had Yakupov ranked number one.
10. New York Islanders
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 13 | N/A |
| Games Played | 5088 | N/A |
| Points | 2919 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 13.6 | 136 |
| Top 10 Picks | 6 | 40 |
| GPP | 391 | 117 |
| PPP | 225 | 225 |
| PPG | 0.57 | 114 |
| Dmen Picked | 3 | 90 |
| NHL | 0.85 | 85 |
| Total | 807 |
The Islanders are one of those teams that both benefited and were hindered by top-ten picks. Josh Bailey and John Tavares have gone on to very productive NHL careers. Tavares was the obvious pick at number one in his draft year so that can hardly be categorized as a genius selection but Bailey has turned out to be a decent value pick from 2008 after a slow start to his career. Bailey sits third overall in career points by forwards from that draft class; mind you…Erik Karlsson or John Carlsson would have looked good in an Islanders’ uniform the past dozen years. Nino Niedereitter was by no means a bust pick, but when you are picking a forward top five in the draft, the hope is that he will be among the top ten-point producers from the first round of that draft – Nino currently sits at 11th. It’s also safe to say that fourth-overall selection Griffin Reinhart was a bust, and that Michael Dal Colle was also selected too high at fifth overall in 2014. Dal Colle sits 26th in career points among all first rounders from that draft class and is a stark reminder of why it is tricky business picking a player that high who has skating concerns even if he is scoring at an impressive pace in junior.
11. Colorado Avalanche
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3385 | N/A |
| Points | 2434 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 10 | 100 |
| Top 10 Picks | 5 | 50 |
| GPP | 375 | 113 |
| PPP | 270 | 270 |
| PPG | 0.72 | 144 |
| Dmen Picked | 2 | 60 |
| NHL | 0.67 | 67 |
| Total | 804 |
The Avalanche had three top-three picks during this period, and most certainly their 500+ career point totals helped cement the club’s status as a top-12 team in this draft study. Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene all lived up to the hype, and MacKinnon, in particular, has developed into one of the top players in the entire league. Kevin Shattenkirk and Mikko Rantanen both were elite value picks in their draft years, with Shattenkirk leading all defencemen in career points despite being the fourth blueliner chosen in 2007. Any time you can draft a defenceman in the middle of the first round who becomes one of the top-ten point scorers from the entire first round, you have to consider it a success. There are some who argue that Rantanen, in hindsight, should have been a top-five pick. What kept Colorado out of the top tier of teams besides terrific drafting position were the Conner Bleackley, Joey Hishon and Duncan Siemens picks. Any time you pick a defenceman in the top 12 who plays 20 career games it is a setback to an organization. The Hishon pick was especially surprising in his draft year because he had notable injuries and had played very little in his draft year. His pro career was then hampered by……shockingly….injuries,
12. Philadelphia Flyers
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3350 | N/A |
| Points | 1636 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 14.4 | 144 |
| Top 10 Picks | 3 | 70 |
| GPP | 372 | 112 |
| PPP | 181 | 181 |
| PPG | 0.49 | 98 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.78 | 78 |
| Total | 803 |
Philly’s first-round picks from 2007-16 didn’t amass a huge amount of points but it must also be noted that, like Montreal, close to half of the club’s picks were defencemen, and they produced at a substantially lower rate than forwards on average. The club was also middle-of-the-pack (16th) when it came to draft position for those nine first rounders, so it’s no surprise that the ranking is a mid-range one. James Van Riemsdyk padded the stats given that he was a top-two pick in 2007 who has produced at a decent clip, but it should be noted that if 2006 had been included, the year the club drafted the guy Bob Clarke forgot in Claude Giroux, the Flyers would certainly be in the top ten of these rankings…perhaps even top five. Sam Morin is the one albatross pick in this bunch, and if the Flyers were able to go back and make that pick again they’d have passed on a player that was overrated because Zdeno Chara was dominating the NHL at the time. Selecting a defenceman in the top dozen who eight years later has suited up for just 25 NHL games certainly qualifies as a huge miss, but in Morin’s defence, he has battled through a number of major injuries. Scott Laughton is the type of pick that neither hurts nor harms your draft ranking – at least he’s still playing and contributing.
13. San Jose Sharks
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 7 | N/A |
| Games Played | 2469 | N/A |
| Points | 1157 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 19.4 | 194 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 352 | 106 |
| PPP | 165 | 165 |
| PPG | 0.47 | 94 |
| Dmen Picked | 1 | 30 |
| NHL | 0.71 | 71 |
| Total | 730 |
When you hit paydirt on more than half of your first-round picks, odds are good that you are going to come out looking decent in any draft studies. San Jose made solid choices in Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Charlie Coyle and Timo Meir. Hertl and Couture have been San Jose’s best first-round picks value-wise in the history of their franchise. Couture has the sixth-highest point total for the 2007 draft, and Hertl stands third overall in points among all players drafted in 2012 despite lasting until the 17th selection on draft day. Ninth overall selection Meier sits tenth overall in points from the 2015 first-round picks, so at this point in his career, he was neither a boom nor bust pick. Charlie Coyle has gone on to have a solid NHL career considering he was picked at the end of the first round, but he never played a game for the Sharks. I’m sure the Sharks don’t mind, however, as he turned out to be the key piece going back to Minnesota in the trade for Brent Burns. Nikolay Goldobin, Nick Petrecki and Mico Mueller are the picks that lowered San Jose’s placement, yet Mueller and Goldobin both were able to at least get extended NHL looks, even if it was predominantly with other teams.
14. Buffalo Sabres
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 12 | N/A |
| Games Played | 5338 | N/A |
| Points | 2132 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 12.6 | 126 |
| Top 10 Picks | 4 | 60 |
| GPP | 439 | 132 |
| PPP | 185 | 185 |
| PPG | 0.42 | 84 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.91 | 91 |
| Total | 798 |
The Sabres certainly picked plenty of first rounders who have played a lot of NHL games, but with the exception of a couple of picks like the obvious ones Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, who were top-three picks, most of them failed to produce points at an above-average pace. The Sabres were tied with the Rangers for the second-fewest points per pick, yet their percentage of choosing defencemen among their picks (33 percent) was mid-range overall. Too many Zemgus Girgensonses and not enough Tyler Myerses left the club right in the middle of these rankings. Tyler Ennis, Zack Kassian, Mark Pysyk, and Girgensons have all played regularly in the NHL for most of their careers but none have been prolific point producers. Alex Nylander is looking more and more like he was a miss at seventh overall in 2016 but it’s still a little early to make that declaration. Rasmus Ristolainen was a good value pick for the purpose of this study, but if we were to also measure defensive play, that pick would be closer to where it should have been made than what the statistics bear out.
15. Winnipeg Jets (Atlanta Thrashers)
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 12 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4505 | N/A |
| Points | 2549 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 12 | 120 |
| Top 10 Picks | 7 | 30 |
| GPP | 375 | 113 |
| PPP | 212 | 212 |
| PPG | 0.57 | 114 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.83 | 83 |
| Total | 792 |
Another club that, in both Atlanta and Winnipeg, got to choose a boatload of players in the top ten of the draft, and much like the Islanders, had both good and poor results. Mark Scheifele, as it has turned out, was a terrific selection at seventh overall in the 2011 draft. One could make the argument that he is one of the best two players of that draft class along with Nikita Kucherov, who Tampa stole late in the second. Atlanta fared well in drafting Evander Kane fourth overall, but the picks of Zach Bogosian third overall in the defence-heavy 2008 NHL draft and Alex Burmistrov eighth overall in 2010 were picks that likely spelled the difference between the franchise being mediocre for a lot of years in both Atlanta and Winnipeg before the predominance of high picks finally began paying dividends. One would suspect that if Atlanta had chosen Alex Pietrangelo and Cam Fowler instead of Bogosian and Burmistrov that the club would have been set on defence for the past decade. It’s not completely fair to Winnipeg’s staff to be lumped in with Atlanta’s but it’s the only way that the club could have been included in this study, and some scouts were carryovers. Kyle Connor and Nikolai Ehlers stand out as extremely high value picks along with Scheifele, and it is those three selections in particular that elevated Winnipeg into the top 15 in this study.
16. Florida Panthers
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 11 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4313 | N/A |
| Points | 1878 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 12.2 | 128 |
| Top 10 Picks | 5 | 50 |
| GPP | 392 | 118 |
| PPP | 171 | 171 |
| PPG | 0.435 | 87 |
| Dmen Picked | 5 | 150 |
| NHL | 0.82 | 82 |
| Total | 780 |
The Panthers are a team that only truly drafted well when handed a top-three pick, and even then they flubbed once in taking Erik Gudbranson. Jon Huberdeau, Alex Barkov and Aaron Ekblad were without question their three best picks between 2007-16. Those three account for 62 percent of Florida’s 1878 career points total. In other words, the other eight picks have averaged 82 points for their careers. The best value pick outside of the Big Three was Nick Bjugstad. Selected 19th overall in 2020, the big centerman sits 14th overall in career points among 2010 first-round draftees. Dmitri Kulikov was a decent-enough pick at 14th overall even if he’s had an inconsistent career. The 2009 draft class was not very deep, and the well-traveled blueliner sits 14th in career points among first rounders. Gudbranson, Keaton Ellerby and Lawson Crouse were all picked in large part because of their size and physical presence, and in hindsight, as the game has trended away from big, physical players thanks to a reduction in hooking and the clutch and grab during the regular season…those picks were ideal for a past era.
17. Ottawa Senators
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 11 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3311 | N/A |
| Points | 1623 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 16.9 | 169 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 301 | 90 |
| PPP | 147 | 147 |
| PPG | 0.49 | 98 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.69 | 69 |
| Total | 773 |
What earns a team with several draft busts a spot right in the middle of the rankings? One name…Erik Karlsson. To pick a defenceman 15th overall that produces more points than any other player in the draft other than the consensus first pick is a rare achievement indeed. Mika Zibanejad has reached another level since being traded to the Rangers, and a selection that at one point looked like a poor one now looks like a decent one. He is sixth overall in points among first rounders from that class, and is starting to produce at a clip that could move him even higher. Ottawa’s other solid pick was Thomas Chabot at 18th overall. While he is still a work in progress on the defensive side of the game, Chabot has good offensive instincts and munches up minutes as Ottawa’s number-one defenceman following the departure of Karlsson. What keeps the Senators out of the top tier is the handful of disappointing selections that include Matt Puempel, Jim O’Brien, Jared Cowan and Cody Ceci. Because he was a top-15 pick, Ottawa tried stubbornly to make Ceci into a top-three defenceman from the day he turned 19, and it was simply not his upside. The next four picks in that draft were Tom Wison, Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Vasilevsky.
18. Arizona Coyotes
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 14 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4322 | N/A |
| Points | 2042 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 17.3 | 173 |
| Top 10 Picks | 5 | 50 |
| GPP | 309 | 93 |
| PPP | 146 | 146 |
| PPG | 0.47 | 94 |
| Dmen Picked | 5 | 150 |
| NHL | 0.50 | 50 |
| Total | 756 |
If you are a GM of a team that decided to load up on first-round picks, you would be best served to have an above-average scouting staff in place. It’s one thing to have the picks; it’s another to take advantage of it. When you make multiple first-round picks in four different drafts (2017-15) and none of the selections make a significant impact on your hockey club, it sets back a franchise. Mikael Boedker is the runaway leader of the eight in career points with the club…and he only scored 213 points over a seven-year span with Arizona. The selections of Brandon Gormley and Mark Visentin netted the Coyotes two players who, in their NHL careers, appeared in 59 career games combined, had no goaltending wins and five points in total. I understand the philosophy that if you have two first-round picks, including one late in the first, you look more seriously at taking a goalie if there’s a need than if you only have one pick. But make damn sure that the other pick is a player! When neither of them pans out – you have seriously impacted the long-term future of a club at a critical juncture in its history. Nick Ross, Victor Tikhonov, Gormley, Visentin and Henrik Samuelsson combined to play 173 NHL games. That’s 35 games-per-pick. Small wonder that the team has had little success since moving from Winnipeg to the desert. Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun were solid picks in recent times and Oliver Ekman-Larsson is one of the top defencemen in the NHL the past decade, so it hasn’t been all doom and gloom.
19. Nashville Predators
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 8 | N/A |
| Games Played | 2637 | N/A |
| Points | 1146 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 13.6 | 136 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 328 | 99 |
| PPP | 143 | 143 |
| PPG | 0.435 | 87 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 80 |
| NHL | 0.88 | 88 |
| Total | 713 |
When half of your draft picks are defencemen over a decade of drafting you better be right on some of those blueliners. Luckily for the Predators, it was the drafting of two of those defenders in Ryan Ellis and Seth Jones that were their saving grace. Several teams passed on Ellis because of height concerns; Nashville was brave (and smart) enough to take the chance because the OHLer was far too talented, smart and competitive not to overcome any size concerns. Nashville was loaded with defencemen when it came time to pick fourth overall in 2013, and they did the wise thing and took the Best Player Available. It’s all about asset building and the Predators were able to convert that pick into what would become their first-line center in Ryan Johansen. The rest of their picks have been far from sexy. Austin Watson and Colin Wilson have carved out serviceable careers. Wilson’s career would be considered to be above-average if he wasn’t a top-seven selection. Alas; he was…and history has shown that there were better choices. Nashville can take credit for being one of the teams that helped deter the vast majority of teams to stop picking goalies in the top 20. Calvin Pickard – an 18th overall pick of the Preds in 2008…never stepped skate on an NHL rink.
20. Boston Bruins
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 12 | N/A |
| Games Played | 2951 | N/A |
| Points | 1852 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 16.2 | 162 |
| Top 10 Picks | 3 | 70 |
| GPP | 246 | 74 |
| PPP | 154 | 155 |
| PPG | 0.631 | 126 |
| Dmen Picked | 3 | 60 |
| NHL | 0.75 | 75 |
| Total | 722 |
The Bruins have definitely had a hodgepodge of picks since 2007, including one of the biggest top-ten busts in Zach Hamill and one of the best first-round value picks of the past 20 years in David Pastrnak. Dougie Hamilton was one of the premier defencemen drafted since 2017, and he wasn’t even selected until ninth overall in 2011. When you prorate his totals from what a defenceman averages in point totals to that of a forward, Hamilton 334 points are adjusted to 527 points, which would be the highest point total in that draft class. Pastrnak is the pick that everyone talks about, however, as he just shared the Rocket Richard Trophy with a former first overall pick in Alex Ovechkin. Pastrnak is the top goal scorer from the 2014 draft call so far, and has the second-highest point total behind Leon Draisaitl. Hamill and Dallas pick Scott Glennie are the only forwards drafted in the top ten from 2007-16 who failed to score one NHL goal. It will be fun to look back in another decade at the end results of the Bruins’ three straight picks at 13, 14 and 15 in 2015. Jake Debrusk has developed into a solid NHLer but Zach Senyshyn is running out of opportunities and Jake Zboril had been slow to develop before this season. A one-two-three punch of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Matt Barzal at center may have been unstoppable the past couple of seasons.
21. Detroit Red Wings
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 7 | N/A |
| Games Played | 1938 | N/A |
| Points | 803 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 21.7 | 217 |
| Top 10 Picks | 0 | 100 |
| GPP | 276 | 83 |
| PPP | 114 | 115 |
| PPG | 0.41 | 82 |
| Dmen Picked | 2 | 40 |
| NHL | 0.86 | 86 |
| Total | 736 |
How can a team with the fourth-worst career point totals end up ahead of eight other teams? Well…when you only make seven first-round picks at an average position of 21.7 – worst starting point of any team from that draft era – odds are that you didn’t pick many point producers. Detroit went to the conference finals or further from 2007-11, and never missed the playoffs between 2007-16, so GM Ken Holland often dealt his first-round pick, and the team has been paying in recent years for sacrificing the prospect pool over such an extended period of time. Despite the hurdles facing the scouting staff, Detroit was able to add a few solid NHLers in Dylan Larkin, Brendan Smith, Anthony Mantha and Riley Sheahan. Larkin was the plum selection of the bunch…a steal at 15th overall considering he has become the Wings’ number-one center and has the fourth-highest point total from the 2014 class so far.
22. Minnesota Wild
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 10 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3063 | N/A |
| Points | 1364 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 16.2 | 162 |
| Top 10 Picks | 3 | 70 |
| GPP | 306 | 92 |
| PPP | 136 | 136 |
| PPG | 0.45 | 90 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.70 | 70 |
| Total | 740 |
The Wild have managed to draft some pretty solid NHLers in the first round over the past 14 years but the lack of any home-run hits at forward in particular, and the sprinkling in of a few busts, kept the club near the bottom of the rankings. The club has been criticized in the past for picking a home-state player in the first round that wasn’t truly deserving (A.J. Thelen), but Nick Leddy’s selection at 16th overall in 2009 has proven to be a smart one, even if he never ended up playing a game for the Wild. Leddy’s defence-adjusted point totals put him top five among first rounders from that draft in terms of production. Jonas Brodin’s true value is hard to gauge in any draft study as he brings far more value for his defensive play than point production. He was a solid pick at tenth overall, as was Matt Dumba with the seventh pick in 2012, especially when you consider how Ryan Murray and Griffin Reinhart have turned out. Tyler Cuma’s career was shortened by a serious knee injury, so much like Montreal with Noah Juulsen – that hurt the club’s ranking due to extenuating circumstances. Colton Gillies and Zack Phillips were simply poor picks.
23. Columbus Blue Jackets
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 12 | N/A |
| Games Played | 4027 | N/A |
| Points | 2019 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 13 | 130 |
| Top 10 Picks | 6 | 40 |
| GPP | 335 | 101 |
| PPP | 168 | 168 |
| PPG | 050 | 100 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.75 | 75 |
| Total | 734 |
If only they could have found a few more Voraceks. Columbus started off in this study so well with the Czech forward being picked seventh overall in 2007. Fourteen years later, he is the second-best point producer from his draft year, and fourth-best point producer among every player drafted since 2007, behind only three first-overall draft picks. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Ryan Johansen were both selected with top-four picks in the hopes of being the number-one center in Columbus, and while both have been productive and far from busts, neither displayed that they are bona fide first-line centers, and were dealt away before the age of 24. Zach Werenski was a terrific pick at ninth overall. He has developed into a productive first-pairing defenceman, and is the major reason along with Voracek why the Blue Jackets aren’t closer to the bottom of this ranking. Nikita Filatov is one of the worst top-six picks of the past two decades, Sonny Milano was taken far too high at 16th overall, and Ryan Murray…in part due to a string of injuries…never reached his once-promising upside as a top-two pick.
24. Toronto Maple Leafs
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3176 | N/A |
| Points | 1835 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 10.9 | 109 |
| Top 10 Picks | 6 | 40 |
| GPP | 356 | 107 |
| PPP | 205 | 205 |
| PPG | 0.58 | 116 |
| Dmen Picked | 3 | 90 |
| NHL | 0.67 | 67 |
| Total | 733 |
With the third-best drafting position among the 30 teams, and 66.7 percent of their picks being in the top ten…one would surmise that such a club would have won several playoff series by now with that talent base. Leafs’ fans are still waiting for that day, but it may finally be coming as the young core of recent high picks mature. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were certainly great picks even if they were obvious choices at first and fourth overall, and Morgan Reilly has shown that his selection at fifth overall was a smart one in 2012. All are solid building blocks, and a decade from now when someone does a similar ranking the Leafs will most likely have climbed in the rankings due to those three even if they were top-five picks. Nazem Kadri and William Nylander were solid picks at seventh and eighth overall respectively, but neither were steals by any means given how highly they were picked; they were selected right about where they should have been. Freddy Gauthier, Tyler Biggs, Stuart Percy and Luke Schenn all failed to live up to expectations, and what hurt the team significantly in this study was the club’s inability to draft any solid NHLers outside of the top ten.
25. Carolina Hurricanes
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 10 | N/A |
| Games Played | 3080 | N/A |
| Points | 1390 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 12.2 | 122 |
| Top 10 Picks | 4 | 60 |
| GPP | 308 | 92 |
| PPP | 139 | 139 |
| PPG | 0.45 | 90 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.70 | 70 |
| Total | 693 |
Carolina fans may wonder how a team with so much young talent could be so low in the rankings? There are a couple of good reasons for that. Firstly; two of Carolina’s top young talents were draft picks made after 2016 – Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov. Secondly; from 2007-16 the Hurricanes drafted an impressive group of players after the first round that have developed into solid or elite NHL players. That list includes Aho, Slavin, McGinn, Pesce, Kuokkanen, Nedeljovic, Faulk, Foegele, Wallmark, Roy, Dumoulin and Rask. The fact remains, though…that with the club’s ten first-round picks made during the period of this study; none would be ranked higher than where they were selected if you were to redo the draft. Jake Bean may change that some day as he is just now starting his NHL career and looks like a solid pro that may end up being one of the top-ten players from the 2016 draft class, but it’s still too early to judge that group. Three top-14 picks in Zach Boychuk, Ryan Murphy and Haydn Fleury fell far short of expectations, and 27th-overall selection Phil Paradis never played a game in the NHL. Those misses were the main reason why Carolina finished in the bottom tier of this study. As noted, though – the club’s drafting in recent years has improved and the club has a bright future.
26. Calgary Flames
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 10 | N/A |
| Games Played | 2715 | N/A |
| Points | 1465 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 17.2 | 172 |
| Top 10 Picks | 3 | 70 |
| GPP | 272 | 82 |
| PPP | 147 | 147 |
| PPG | 0.54 | 108 |
| Dmen Picked | 1 | 30 |
| NHL | 0.50 | 50 |
| Total | 659 |
Calgary’s draft record boils down to one basic thing – there were too many misses and not enough hits. For every Tkachuk there was a Bennett. For every Mikael Backlund, there was a Greg Nemisz, Sven Baertshi, Emile Poirier and Morgan Klimchuk. Sam Bennett is by no means a poor hockey player, but if, by the time you trade away a fourth-overall pick, he is not anywhere close to being one of the top 12 point producers from the first round of his draft class, you had a major miss. Nik Ehlers on a line with Lindholm and Gaudreau would be a lightning-quick and dangerous trio, wouldn’t it? You have to consider the strength of a draft year as well when you truly dissect how a team fared in one particular key moment. The Flames went into the 2013 NHL draft with three first-round picks. As luck would have it – 2013 has turned out to be one of the least deep drafts of the past 15 years. Yes – Emile Poirier and Morgan Klimchuk were poor choices, but it’s not like the scouting staff had their choice of dozens of plum prospects. One player selected between 16 and 75 in that draft has hit 200 career points. But – it is what it is. Calgary had chances to pick solid NHLers, and on several occasions they missed. Their ranking speaks for itself.
27. Pittsburgh Penguins
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 7 | N/A |
| Games Played | 1443 | N/A |
| Points | 424 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 20.7 | 207 |
| Top 10 Picks | 1 | 90 |
| GPP | 206 | 62 |
| PPP | 60 | 60 |
| PPG | 0.29 | 58 |
| Dmen Picked | 4 | 120 |
| NHL | 0.57 | 57 |
| Total | 654 |
When Olli Maatta is your best first-round pick over the span of a decade…you know that a club’s prospect cupboard is most likely bare. On the plus side – the Penguins usually drafted late, if they drafted at all in the first round; predominantly because the club was a contender most of those seasons with Crosby and Malkin leading the charge. Pittsburgh did not draft a forward with a top-19 pick, and 57 percent of its first-round picks were defenceman, so it’s little wonder that the total point total is low. Mind you; 424 career points for seven picks is still pretty unimpressive. Angelo Esposito, Simon Despres, Beau Bennett, Derrick Pouliot and Joe Morrow did not turn out to be especially good draft picks. Esposito was once thought to be a future number-one pick, but his draft stock plummeted that season. Pittsburgh took the gamble that the former phenom could recapture that promise being around Crosby and Malkin – he could not. An underwhelming group as a whole…and who knows? If the club could have just drafted a couple of later gems with those picks, perhaps the Penguins have one or two more Cup rings.
28. Vancouver Canucks
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 11 | N/A |
| Games Played | 2044 | N/A |
| Points | 956 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 18.5 | 185 |
| Top 10 Picks | 4 | 60 |
| GPP | 186 | 56 |
| PPP | 87 | 87 |
| PPG | 0.47 | 94 |
| Dmen Picked | 1 | 30 |
| NHL | 045 | 45 |
| Total | 557 |
Much like with Carolina, the good news for Vancouver is that the club’s drafting has improved considerably in recent years, particularly since Jim Benning took over as GM. Draft picks like Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, who didn’t qualify for this study, will be long-time NHLers that produce plenty of points. With their 11 first-round picks between 2007-16, as of this publication, the club has only hit on two of them. Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat were solid picks for the organization and a major reason why the club made the playoffs in 2019-20. That’s pretty much it. It’s still early for Olli Juolevi, and to a lesser extent Jake Virtanen, but neither of those top-six selections has panned out to date. Fourteen players chosen after Virtanen in the first round have more career points. Forwards Patrick White, Nicklas Jensen, Brendan Gaunce and Jordan Schroeder combined for 64 career points, that wasn’t good enough. When only 45 percent of your first-rounders are playing in the NHL, it’s a strong indication that there were some lean years. The ship appears to be righted, though, and that’s good news for long-suffering Canucks fans.
29. Dallas Stars
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 9 | N/A |
| Games Played | 1628 | N/A |
| Points | 456 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 15.1 | 151 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 181 | 54 |
| PPP | 51 | 51 |
| PPG | 0.28 | 56 |
| Dmen Picked | 2 | 60 |
| NHL | 0.66 | 66 |
| Total | 478 |
The Stars made seven top 15-picks between 2007 and 2016. Radek Faksa is the point leader among all of them with 140 career points. That tells you pretty much you need to know about the team’s first-round draft record during this period. The last top-ten NHL pick to play in fewer than Scott Glennie’s one career game was Ryan Sittler in 1992…Glennie goes down as one of the worst top-ten selections of the past 30 years as the eighth selection of the 2009 draft. The first seven picks from that draft have all scored at least 385 career points; Glennie scored none. Dallas had similar luck the following season when it selected goalie Jack Campbell 11th overall, as just like Glennie, he would only appear in one career game for the Stars. Campbell was eventually traded for defenceman Nick Ebert, who would never play a game for Dallas. Undeterred, the Stars selected a long-term 6-7 defence prospect 14th overall in 2011. Jamie Oleksiak would not become an NHL regular until the age of 24, and was promptly traded away to Pittsburgh. He would be reacquired two seasons later and remains with the club. Eleven years after he was drafted, Oleksiak has played in just 274 games with the team that drafted him. The gambling continued from 2013-15 with the Stars picking two Russians playing in Russia and a 5-10 offence-first defenceman with three more top-15 picks, and the only one contributing to the Stars today is Denis Gurianov. The positive is that the club hit on several later draft picks…John Klingberg, Esa Lindell and captain Jamie Benn in particular…that more than made up for some early misses, and their top pick in 2017 Miro Heiskanen is already a star defenceman.
30. New Jersey Devils
| Category | Data | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Picks | 7 | N/A |
| Games Played | 1535 | N/A |
| Points | 393 | N/A |
| Average Draft Position | 17.9 | 179 |
| Top 10 Picks | 2 | 80 |
| GPP | 219 | 66 |
| PPP | 56 | 56 |
| PPG | 0.26 | 52 |
| Dmen Picked | 1 | 30 |
| NHL | 0.43 | 43 |
| Total | 506 |
Throughout the 2000’s longtime New Jersey head scout David Conte remained a legendary figure in the scouting industry for draft picks he’d made in the 1990s. Much like Barry Fraser in Edmonton throughout the 1990s when he made a run of poor picks after drafting Hall of Famers in the 1980s…Conte’s magic at the draft table wore off well before his reputation began to wane. He remained in his position as New Jersey’s director of scouting for 30 years before moving on to Vegas in 2016, but not before leaving the organization with first-round draft picks that were less than impactful. Matias Tedenby, Jacob Josefsson, Stefan Matteau and John Quenneville were all forwards that failed to find a regular place in the Devils’ lineup. The four forwards have combined for 38 career NHL goals, and a major reason why the Devils sit in the final spot in this ranking. Even when the club had a top-five pick as it did in 2011, the selection of Adam Larsson ended up being a disappointing one considering how slow he was to develop as other picks taken after him flourished. The Devils were able to package Larsson in a deal to obtain Taylor Hall, and he won a Hart Trophy with New Jersey, so in a roundabout way, one of Conte’s final picks in New Jersey helped the club immensely for one season. Even Pavel Zacha has been a disappointment for the most part in his career, and if you were to do a redraft of the 2015 crop today, he would fall outside of the top ten.
Let’s compare Edmonton versus Montreal to demonstrate how the rankings work because there is a stark contrast in their draft positions and points per game. Edmonton has averaged 298 points per pick and .63 points-per-game while Montreal has averaged 150 per pick and .49 points per game. So surely…Edmonton is ahead of Montreal in the rankings? Not so fast. Edmonton’s average drafting position was between 6-10 at 8.5 per pick; Montreal’s was between 16-20 at 18th position per pick. Edmonton drafted three defencemen with their 13 picks (23 percent of their picks) while Montreal selected five blueliners (50 percent) with their ten draft choices.
All of the teams selecting between six and ten from 2007-2016 averaged 228 points per pick. All of the teams selecting between 16-20 from 2007-2016 averaged 122 points per pick. Teams that made picks in the 6-10 range got players who produced 87% more points than teams that selected in the 16-20 range.
Next…you look at defence picks. Edmonton took three defencemen among their 13 draft selections in that decade, Montreal selected defencemen five times. Some in-depth studying of forwards’ point totals versus defencemen at the NHL level revealed that forwards score 88% more points than their blueline brethren. In other words – a 45-point defenceman equates to an 85-point forward.
So if you take Montreal’s five defence picks and multiply the team’s average of 150 points per pick by .88 …five of Montreal’s ten picks are readjusted to 282 points. You add up 1410 (282 x 5) with the five forward pick’s average of 150 (750) and divide by ten. Montreal’s total jumps to 216 per pick.
When you make the same adjustment with Edmonton’s three defence picks you arrive at a total of 351 per pick on average.
Montreal’s total is at 216 PPP and Edmonton’s is at 351 at this point. Then you factor in the draft position. If you multiply Montreal’s adjusted total of 216 by 87 percent (the difference in point total for draft picks in the 16-20 range and picks in the 6-10 range) you arrive at a total of 404. Montreal’s average point-per-pick factoring in position and number of defencemen selected in direct comparison to Edmonton is 404 points per pick…Edmonton’s remains at 351 points per pick. So that is why Montreal is ranked ahead of Edmonton. Having the highest draft position of any team over that period… and using 77 percent of those high picks on forwards… were why Edmonton has such lofty career point totals; not because they were especially adept at drafting.
Leafs fans will also be wondering why they aren’t ahead of Montreal in this ranking, and it all comes down to draft position and number of defencemen selected, just as it did with Edmonton.
Montreal’s adjusted point total after factoring in their defencemen is 216. Toronto’s increases to 265.
Here is where it gets a bit trickier. Considering that there is more than a seven-point difference in where each team drafted and Toronto picked in the top ten 67 percent of the time compared to Montreal’s 17 percent, it’s not really equitable to have Toronto lumped in the 11-15 category and Montreal in the 16-20 category, especially with there being such a difference in points per pick with top-ten selections and 11-15 selections. On the other hand… it’s not really fair to lump Toronto in the top-ten category either, since, with a 10.9 average draft position, the Leafs are essentially on the cusp of either category. So I combined the points per pick in the 6-10 category with the points per pick in the 11-15 category and divided by two to get an average of 186.5 points per pick for a Leafs team drafting at 10.9 each draft on average. Teams in Montreal’s draft slot of 16-20 averaged 122 points per pick. The difference is 52.9 percent.
So you multiply Montreal’s previously adjusted total of 216 by .529 to arrive at a final total of 330 points compared to Toronto’s final tally of 265 points.
As noted earlier – with time, Toronto’s ranking will climb because Marner and Matthews’ careers are just starting, and we addressed that in this study by including points per game average so that more recent picks can be better balanced with ones that were made from 2007-10. Bear in mind though…that if you multiply Michael Sergachev’s points per game by 88 percent to factor in the difference between NHL defence totals and forward totals on average, Sergachev is producing at an average of .94 ppg. That’s not far behind Marner’s 1.0 ppg pace, and Sergachev is a year younger…and picked five spots lower in the draft.
And who knows ten years from now how many points Montreal’s third-overall pick from 2018 will have, or the Habs’ first-round pick in 2019. You pick high in the draft; you get good players., and Toronto picked high in the draft on many occasions during the period of this study.
Any time the Canadiens have picked top 16 since 2005 (Price, McDonagh, Galchenyuk, Sergachev, Kotkaniemi, Caufield, Guhle) the club made a solid selection. They are a prime example of just how important it is where you pick in the draft. The same can be said for Washington. Their points per pick total was seventh-best among the 30 teams, but considering that they picked once in the top ten and, on average, made a selection at 20th overall every time they picked…their first-round drafting has been outstanding, and they were solidly entrenched at third overall in draft success.
In conclusion – at least half of the teams are pretty closely grouped together; there hasn’t been a huge difference in first-round drafting results between the team ranked eighth overall and the one ranked 23rd, and you could argue one way or another that a mid-range team could be a bit higher or lower in this draft study. What you can’t vociferously argue, though, is that the seventh-ranked Anaheim Ducks haven’t drafted better than the 25th-ranked Carolina Hurricanes, or the Kings better than the Penguins, and so on. There are basically 14 teams that either fared quite well with first-round picks from 2007-16, or fared rather poorly, and 16 teams sandwiched in between. It will be fun to look back at this study in another decade and to redo the numbers to see where teams end up. I may just do that.