Recrutes

Recrutes: Hockey scouting from a professional perspective from Grant McCagg and Habs coverage from a 33 year veteran covering the NHL from Brian Wilde.

Habs Forward Group Underappreciated

July 29, 2017

By Grant McCagg

We had a subscriber leave a message on Recrutes board where he said this – “The holes in the roster aren’t shallow. we have a team who is going to try desperately to climb out of those holes.”

I really think that overstating the offensive “desperation” with a team coming off of a 103-point season. What was the solution to this supposed crisis….sign more UFA’s? Give a Russian who is 30 and played one successful NHL season in the past eight a 6-year contract at $7M plus? That is usually not a recipe for success.

At some point you have to expect young players that have been drafted to step into roles and not simply try to buy your way into filling holes or making desperation moves in the summer because there may be a position or two that is a concern. That is all there is on this team…two holes. Mind you they are important ones…but that’s why they haven’t been filled yet…teams aren’t going to give away first-line centers and top-pairing defencemen. For now, they will be filled within the organization…and at forward the void is not as desperate as many think as there is quite possibly a solution on the roster.

In terms of the other 18 positions on the team…in my view, the team is quite set….and in fact, has excellent depth and decent quality in those spots. There are at least 15 NHL calibre forwards and nine NHL-level defencemen. In net, there are three netminders that arguably should be playing in the NHL.

Good teams fill holes within the organization, and this club is in the position to do so this season. Many Habs fans seem to think there are no good prospects because not many have cracked the lineup the past two season. Teams often go through those cycles in terms of prospects joining the club..it’s not every year that three or four become regulars.

The fact is…they haven’t needed several to crack the lineup, and it needs to be remembered prospects simply aren’t ready until they are 21-23. When Detroit was making the playoffs every season they were lauded for remaining patient with their prospects and not inserting then in the lineup until they were fully ready. In Montreal, the GM is trashed for that approach.

Players who were late first-round picks, second-round picks or even mid-rounders like Hudon are supposed to be force-fed into the roster because there are always high hopes in the unknown…maybe “this guy” can be a star. We saw what happened with rushing de la Rose…he lost his confidence and it took him a year-and-a-half to regain it. Same thing happened with a young Pacioretty once upon a time…to the point where he even asked to be sent down to regain his scoring confidence. I’m even guilty of wanting the rookies to be auditioned more often…but until they are on waivers…there is nothing wrong with developing them in the minors. No one has ever been ruined by playing in the AHL.

Bergevin in the offseason and in the past year lost none of his top prospects despite there being an expansion draft…but now the likes of Hudon, DLR, and McCarron need to make the big team over the next season or they will most likely be lost on waivers, and in my opinion they will become regulars…and perform half decently.

The other comment the subscriber said that caught my attention was this – that there is an “insane amount of pressure on Drouin to score.”

I don’t believe that is the case. Let’s look at the expected top nine.

Pacioretty had the fifth most goals in the league in the past five years..we don’t need to go into details in what he can bring…that will be goals and solid defence, including on the penalty kill.

Galchenyuk and Gallagher are only now entering their primes, and Galchenyuk scored 56 goals in the past two seasons. I expect Gallagher to bounce back from a scoring slump last season…why? Because at 23 he was producing and one of the most promising young players in the game…he was on the short list for an invite to the last Canadian Olympic team. He had some bad injury problems last season and simply couldn’t shoot or handle the puck like he can with his mangled hand …there is no reason not to expect him to bounce back and hit the 20-goal mark when one year earlier he was on pace for 30 goals, and at 22 years of age scored 24 goals.

Lehkonen is even younger and had a tremendous second half. He could well be a 25-goal scorer this season and already plays a solid all-around game. He has a lethal shot, strong work ethic and little fear to go to the scoring areas.

Danault is just 24 and had a dramatic improvement in his production. No reason not to expect him to get even more points as he enters his prime as he is still improving.

Don’t forget last year was his first full NHL season as he had only played 53 NHL games…he is only going to get more confidence with experience and likely get 45-50 points; good production in today’s NHL for a centerman that also brings, speed, defence and competitiveness. Byron had 22 goals and is going to be playing a third-line role…how many 22-goal scorers are there are NHL third lines? Not many, especially with his speed and excellent penalty killing ability.

Plekanec had his worst season in a decade offensively…no reason to expect him to repeat it as he hasn’t slowed down skating-wise and is not over the hill. It wouldn’t surprise me if he bounced back to score at least 40 points as that is what he had done in nine of his previous ten seasons. If the scoring slump continues…look at Bergevin dealing him at the deadline when his contract is almost up, and he’ll have more value because of it even if he’s on the wane offensively. Even if he does bounce back offensively he could be dealt at the deadline, perhaps, as Brian Wilde suggested in his first “Wildeo” today, for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

I have no doubt there will be teams that would welcome his two-way game, smarts and leadership when there is only a million left on his deal..especially a team looking for a playoff run. You don’t think Edmonton, for example, wouldn’t like to have Plekanec for next year’s playoffs in a third-line role after using Desharnais in that position last playoff? Quite an upgrade.

Andrew Shaw ran into some difficulties in his first season as a Hab playing for a coach who didn’t like his rambunctious style, and then suffered a concussion that took some time to recover from. He is also just entering his prime, however, and Julien likes him and will play him lots. He scored 20 goals in Chicago at the tender age of 22…and there’s no reason not to expect him to get at least 15-20 goals this campaign.

All nine of the forwards slated to start the season in the top nine are fully capable of scoring 15 or more goals, and five have at minimum 25-goal potential – Galchenyuk, Drouin, Pacioretty, Gallagher and Lehkonen…all who should play in the top six, and four of whom are under the age of 26 and only on the rise points-wise.

All that said…yes there will be pressure on Drouin to score…not because of desperation, but because of expectations, given that he was a top four pick who at 22 scored 56 points and is only now scratching the surface of his high-end potential.

You don’t deal your top prospect for a player you don’t expect to score…and he will. He is arguably one of the ten most skilled forwards in the league; I saw that first-hand during three seasons of scouting him in junior, and never saw a more skilled prospect with the puck in the past 9 years.

“Insane pressure”? No…there is talent and scoring potential in this lineup despite what many keep saying….this is an underrated forward group, especially on the wing, and there is depth if any of the top nine underachieve; some young players who are ready for the NHL in de la Rose, Hudon and McCarron, and an insurance policy in Ales Hemsky.

The club does indeed need a first-line center, and it looks like Bergevin won’t be dealing for one before the start of the season, so two players will be in the running for that slot in October – Drouin and Galchenyuk.

I expect Galchenyuk to get the nod at season’s start if he can show in training camp that he can take care of his defensive assignments better than he did in the second-half of last season.

He was royally roasted in the offseason by fans and media alike, but before his injury last fall he was playing quite well at center and was among the league leaders. A full training camp with Julien and Muller drilling him on the defensive part of the game..a new opportunity to seize the top-center spot..and renewed enthusiasm on a line with a tremendous playmaker in Drouin? No reason why he can’t fill the position ably if his coach has some patience and Galchenyuk finally gets that it’ just as important to keep goals out as score them.

It’s funny..last July fans and media (myself included) were clamouring for the Habs to give Galchenyuk a shot at first-line center…and for two months he was solid before his knee injury. Nine months after the injury many have given up on him playing there, and insisting that Bergevin find someone else to play first-line center. What a difference a year makes.

Well…Bergevin couldn’t get one in a market where none were simply not available this summer…so we have to be able to change our minds don’t we? It’s not inconceivable for Galchenyuk to fill the position and prosper – he did it in junior as a 16-year-old and was dominant, and he did it at the start of last season. Teams need to be adaptable and change plans, so he should be given another opportunity to fill the role and put up with a few growing pains on the defensive end.

If he can’t pull it off Drouin will get the spot, and he’s more than capable of filling that role offensively because, as one NHL scout told me at the time of the trade, “he likes to roam and make plays.” Much like Galchenyuk, where there will be issues is on the defensive end, so there is much work for the coaching staff this summer and fall. Thankfully the Habs have one of the best NHL defensive centers from the past 25 years in Kirk Muller to work with Galchenyuk and Drouin on all of the little things..including faceoffs, positioning and work ethic. Hopefully, both of them get time at center in training camp, and the “best man” wins. Julien and Muller are good judges on such things, and I trust that they’ll make the proper choice.

So there you have it. For this reporter, all is not doom and gloom for this club. It’s not a forward roster filled with over-the-hill talentless players. Plekanec is the only player on the decline, but two years ago he was one of the four best players on the team so it’s not like he’s ready for the scrap heap as he hasn’t lost a step, just his confidence. This club will compete, score, and contend…of that I am confident.

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  • If they improve at 1-2 C, I agree. The wingers are more than good enough. But like B said, it’s been a hole for 20 years. Galchenyuk? I don’t know.

    • It’s an unknown. I want to see him with Drouin though….he’s been stuck with a lot of linemates the past few years for the most part who aren’t nearly as skilled

  • I don’t believe there is enough offence. It’s true they had 103 points, but against playoff teams, they were about .500. They averaged 2.34 goals per game against playoff teams, and have averaged less than two goals per game in their last two playoff series. Their two highest scoring postseason performers are gone from their past two playoff years. And they don’t really have a clutch goal scorer, and haven’t for a while. In their last four elimination games, they scored 4 goals total. No one stepped up.

    Your article is good but optimistic.

    • Of for sure…it is definitely optimistic. Not sure it matters that their record is worse against teams with the most points..that’s why they got more points. 🙂 Most teams don’t get as many points against the top teams as the bottom feeders. ..or as many goals. And there is so much parity in the league anyway..is it really a big deal if the Habs were better against Philly than say..Boston? What was the difference in their point totals?

      Your points about scoring in playoff series involves a very small sample size..and Henrik was incredible last year.

      As the article states…only one player is on the decline..and four of the top six are entering their primes. Drouin will score more goals than Radulov would have..Gally will score more for sure than last year..I expect at least ten more from Lehkonen..none of those are overly optimistic expectations.

  • I also expect more from within. Especially Lehkonen improving & bounce back year from Gallagher.

  • Is it so crazy to think that Galchenyuk and Drouin can both play center and fill the 1-2 positions? I would love to see if that could work given the right opportunities.

    What are your thoughts on that?

    • I can’t see CJ going with two centers who are suspect defensively in the top two spots..who are the wingers in the top six then? Fanault should be a solid 2nd liner..45 points and solid defence is fine in the second center slot.

      • Yes, that’s when it gets tricky with Plekanec in the fold at center still.

        But for now these are the F lines I’d like to see:

        Lehkonen – Galchenyuk – Drouin
        Patch- Danault – Gallagher
        Hudon/Byron – Plekanec – Shaw
        Byron/Hudon – McCaron/De La Rose – Hemsky

  • You hit the nail right on the head Grant great read. I watched Drouin his whole junior career here in Halifax. On a team that was loaded with prospects( high end) he was always a standout. There was alaways debate that Drouin was in fact better then Mckinnion. I know it’s junior and it’s not comparable to the NHL but Drouin regularly played C often times over Mckinnion and under Pressure he was Gold. He just seemed to get better the more that was on the line. When you thought you had seen it all he regularly took it to another level that usually left your jaw on the floor. If you listen to him talk post trade he seems more motivated then intimidated and a motivated Drouin is going to be very very dangerous for the opposition. He’s very hard to contain and is excellent at finding dead space on the ice. Who ever he plays with their numbers will jump. ( hey pool guys pick 27) I would put my pay cheque on it. People have to stop underestimating just how big of aquiaition 92 really is. H U G E!

  • I agree wirh assessment although I expect a decline in Byron’s production and not convince #14 will get out of it. I’d like to see Galchenyuk play with Drouin and Lekhonen. While leaving 67-24-11 on the second unit. I think Lekhonen can be the first 1 to backcheck, being such a good teo-way player (or third man in the offensive zone) leaving Drouin and Chucky to razzle & dazzle us all season long.

    • Yes you may see Arrtie with them. I don’t expect Byron to get 22 goals again (I did say 15+)… but look at Plekanec’s production the two previous seasons and past decade..and he has not slowed down speed wise. He played well the last 20 games too,..scored some big goals down the stretch. You really think he won’t improve on 28 points? I’d be surprised..he’s got one or two more decent years I think..everyone’s allowed one poor offensive year a decade. AS I stated..I expect at least 15 goals from each of them, Maybe #14 only gets 10-15…but I think he’ll get at least 35 points if he doesn’t have different linemates every game unlike last year with Carousel Mike.

  • The special ingrediant in the soup is Julien.with CJ opening up and running his own training camp his experience will boost the output of many. Therrien was pretty much single minded defence defence and oh if you get a chance shoot on net .the games changed its more offensive,open it up.julien i think will do that,take the parking brake off and let the forwards go more then thierrien has in the past.hope so.

  • Wow……

    I’ve read quite a few articles on the Habs this off season, in both official languages….

    They’ve all been pessimistic, and make me wonder if these journalists are so uninformed, or if Complaining is the only way to get Reads…

    As if losing a 39 year old defenseman all of a sudden puts a Division winner outside of the playoffs.

    Yours is the first that makes any sense. And for that I thank you and will bookmark your site?

    • Comments like these are special to read…thank you so much for taking the time to respond in a positive fashion. I agree.there has been far too much negativity.

  • How would you evaluate Nikita Scherbak now?
    Down the line, I’m extremely optimistic about Joni Ikonen.
    What impressive skills! How much maturing does he need before he’s even a possibility?
    Excellent articles, thank you.

    • Scherbak has all the skill..it’s his head that is worrisome. Needs to work harder on and off the ice, stop making poor decisions that are risky.and needs to get stronger. One more year of deve3lopment…hope he can put it all together in the next 13 months before he’s waiver eligible.

  • i’m concerned that we’re still soft up front. galchenyuk is a bit soft. pleks – soft as dairy queen. drouin is not big & neither is gallagher, byron, lehkonnen, shaw, hemsky & hudon. danault is an average size. max is big but doesn’t use it. that leaves mac, martinson & dlr. i guess we have to hope mac can contribute on a middle 6 line that needs the size. otherwise, mb would be wise to deal one or more of our smurf forwards for someone with power & rnh is not one of them. it’d really be nice if scherbak could get to 205 lbs & put it together. i think he will but just not this season.
    we just can’t have entire lines of undersized guys playing together esp in the playoffs. big, good teams will force us to play along the boards every time because that’s where small guys lose. the habs will be decent this year but we’re going nowhere without at least 3 or 4 guys who can contribute & handle the rough traffic.

  • Great read Grant. It’s very refreshing having a positive thinking article to read.

    I’d like to see Hudon with a shot at playing with Patches and Danault to see what he could do with 2 defensive responsible offensive players. Did you ever scout Hudon? Think he could do ok in that spot?

    Jon

  • I indeed also love this article. People seem to just love to hate and say anything just to be controversial.

    The Habs were good last season but fell short in the playoffs when everybody expected the opposite. Now everyone expects them to tank meanwhile I have a belief that we’ll do quite well.

    Best part, we have money in the bank should the need arrive to correct something near the trade deadline.

    Looking forward to October. (After I finish enjoying summer…)

    Go Habs Go!!

  • Great article. The thing about prospects is, They have to earn a spot on the roster, and not be given one. when you have a very good team, with experienced players, those Rookies really have to make an impression in order to earn a spot. With a last place team or teams that suck lol for example, It would be easier for a rookie to make that team as they have less dept, less talent. So when people compare the # of prospects making the Habs club to other teams can be an unfair assessment. Not because the talent isn’t there, but because of the talent and experience that is already on that team. Also, players can fill different roles, as McCarron can act as enforcer.. DLR or Hudon cannot. Neither DLR or Hudon bring anything to this team that it doesn’t already have. Remember, experience in this league counts for a lot. Drouin has really impressed me. I didn’t know a lot about him, til I looked at some video footage. both highlight reel plays off of you tube, and 1 video on how he plays in his own end. With him being in Mtl, I think he can only get better, as in scary better sense. What he brings, Mtl does not have and desperately needs. What Radulov brought, was a lunch pail, take charge deal mainly using muscle to get puck possession. not the fastest, but solid on skates. In other words, not really anything different than what the team already has. Drouin on the other hand, is clearly a cut above the rest. No one on the Habs team is as talented as he is. He reminds me of that one kid, playing pond hockey who basically took over the game, and everyone on his team would just hand him the puck and watch him go. That’s when you realized that any hopes of a hockey career you might have had at then, 12 years of age had come to a screeching conclusion. Add him to the talent pool of goal scorers we have, will improve the team, not just add more of the same. he will make the opposition look slow, Play keep away till he finds an open man. Be a puck hound in the d zone. With him wanting to be the man in Mtl, knowing what is expected of him, and what he can do, with the supporting cast he has to work with, I don’t think his career would be any better elsewhere. The only other player who comes to mind that played in a Habs uni, though past his prime, with that kind of talent, was Denis Savard. To me, relying strictly on stats, especially in the playoffs, is a waste of time. It only states the final results, not how or what influenced the game to get to those results. Stating we needed to score more goals is an obvious. what is not an obvious is how the Rangers, by scoring the winning goal or even go ahead goal, changed the momentum of the game at that point.. that is partially why MB has decided to make changes on the D side of the roster. A key play at that moment, could of been the difference between winning and losing, by giving the team the confidence it needed as oppose to fighting an uphill battle. Not blaming Price, as too often, it was an open man left unattended in front of the net, scoring the goals. Mtl competed hard against the Rangers. It was key defensive mistakes that did this team in. This is why I am glad we got Alzner instead of Shattenkirk. I like the direction this team is heading, and the fact Bergevin isn’t afraid to make changes to improve this team. Serge Savard recommended him. I can see why he did. And on top of that, seems to better manage the cap a lot better than those in Chicago.