Recrutes: Hockey scouting from a professional perspective from Grant McCagg and Habs coverage from a 33 year veteran covering the NHL from Brian Wilde.
September 2, 2017
By Brian Wilde
A lot of respected journalists and some not so respected ones think the Habs may miss the playoffs. Though no one ever knows which teams will suffer a lot of injuries, all things being equal in September, Brian Wilde can’t see what all the negativity is about.
*No animals were harmed in the recording of this video.
Tes I agree with that prediction. Tampa losed Droin and Toronto to young and the goalies not better than Carey
Sorry. The Ch is in a good position
One thing with Tampa is they may have gained stamkos but lost Drouin. 1 or 2 in division.
I keep coming back to this. And when’s the last time Stamkos played 82 games?
Good point. I’m not ready to anoint the Lighting as division champs either…Tyler Johnson has shown himself to be rather injury prone at the NHL level as well given his size. I think the division is very much up in the air..but until another team steps up, no reason not to expect the Habs to repeat…or at the very least, strongly contend for first spot. I really think Drouin is going to drive the offence and be a key factor in improving the Habs’ goal totals.
And is Vasilevskiy ready to be the number 1 tender ? I’m curious to see if Sergachev cracks their lineup too.
They make the playoffs. There of course are intangibles that can occur during any season, for any team, which will determine whether they end up 1st, 2nd or wherever. They have a really good core of players which is why I believe they will make it. We tend to focus on the strengths of other teams but they all have weaknesses which can be exploited throughout a season. Predictions never seem to be smart thing to do, but they are fun and after all, that is why we are here. I also the 8.5 mil will go a long way in determining the Habs final standing and eventual fate in the playoffs.
I have to disagree with Florida improving in any way. They added Vrbata and Dadonov (Let’s wait and see on this one), but they lost Marchessault, Jagr, Jokinen and Smith… The blueline and the goaltending situation is essentially the same… They had injuries, yes, but most team did, right?
Other than that, agree on pretty much everything else. Of course a Carey Price injury puts everything in jeopardy, but otherwise I don’t really see how they miss the playoffs.
Great Brian.
I predict Habs finish second behind Tampa and ahead of the Leafs.
1-Tampa Bay
2-Toronto
3-Montreal
4-Detroit
5-Ottawa
6-Boston
7-Florida
8-Buffalo
I
If we don’t find a solution with the D of who will carry the puck in the offensive zone then they will barely the playoffs.
Losing Markov will hurt us alot.
I really think people are overestimating the Leafs because of their three young guns. Sorry..but goaltendiong and defence is as important if not more than offence. The Leafs top 11 scorers missed a grand total of ten games last season while Tampa’s top 11 missed 190…not going to happen again.
Oh that’s a good comment from this McCagg fellah. If the Leafs are that healthy twice in a row, that would be a shocker. And if the Lightning are that injured two in a row, that would be equally as surprising.
Agree but same can be said about Price ,if he stays healthy than we are ok but if he gets hurt for a long period of time will be in a big world of hurt
Well..their goalie can get hurt too…and Habs have two solid backups. Talking about skaters..if they have the same amount of injuries as the Habs..and that’s quite likely..will make a huge difference. Habs were close to 100 man games lost for top ten scorers…Leafs come close to that..knock several points of their point total.
Agree
I think Andersen is a good #1 (he’s not Price, no one is), but agree the Leaf’s D is still weak. You can’t play Gardiner 29 minutes a game like Babcock did in the playoffs. I’m not sure Hainsey is going to help much.
Babcock is a great coach, he’ll have them running and gunning, because he has no choice with that lineup. That means Andersen will see a lot of difficult chances, and may wear down over the season. I’m not sure McElhinney is an NHL grade backup, even if the two had similar numbers.
Thanks Brian! I also heard some great journalists with a very pessimistic view of the the HABS season and it drives me crazy. In MTL it seems we always feel other teams are way better then the HABS and the HABS are worse then they actually are. Thanks for voicing the realistic, less dramatic view.
I’m looking forward to what our team will look like come playoffs. I love it when the experts pass over the HABS because that sets them up to be a surprise team.
I also feel MB is looking at spending his money on offence (RW).
Thanks for the walk!
My pleasure. I think if I were simply saying first no problem, that would be a bit pie in the sky. This is just realistic as I see it.
I agree with you, Brian. I think it will be a battle between Tampa and Montreal for the division. I don’t think Toronto has the defense or goaltending to surpass the Habs just yet. Florida always seems to flop, as does Buffalo and the Sens were an anomaly last year in my opinion.
I do think they need to add a very good defenceman to make it past the first or second round though. The blueline is just not good enough right now and Price can only do so much.
One thing that I never considered and I am coming to it now. Think about this…. You think maybe Bergevin has that 8.5 million and it hasn’t been spent yet, because he needs to see how Drouin or even Galchenyuk look at center this year? If one of the two excels, then you spend the money on a left top pairing D. If they can’t cut it, then you spend it on a center. But why spend on the need when you can’t yet define the need. Seems pretty smart to me.
Oh yes, great point! Like a teen at Christmas, MB wants to see what he has under the tree before he spends his money on his wish list! Who steps up to take a spot on the Habs???
Also – Habs finish 2nd but only a few points will separate 1st and 3rd.
1st or 2nd in division! TML finishes 3rd
I doubt the leafs finish 2nd… But they will make the playoffs.
1- Tampa
2- MTL
3- TO
4- Ott
Good analysis as usual, Brian.
If players are healthy and playing to capabilities, I see MTL as the #2 team in the conference, behind TB. The teams that are purportedly on the upswing, according to other analysts (BOS, PHI, BUF, FLA, TOR), all have to prove something to me before I commit to their alleged greatness.
Marv
p.s. I think you meant to say Thomas Chabot of OTT instead of “Frederic Chabot.”
Ha ha..Yes a Freudian slip by Brian there on Chabot as I pointed out to him. Hey, we’re in our 50’s..the ol’ memory box has a slip now and then.
I’m happy to say that I am also in your “50’s” Club.
Yeah, old timer mistake. 🙂
If Galchenyuk and/or Drouin work out at C, and if they sort out their top defensive pairing, then they finish top 3. If they spend cap money wisely, they can then fill holes and make a run in the playoffs. If Drouin and Galchenyuk don’t thrive under Claude Julien, then Habs will have serious problems and may fall out of contention. Here’s hoping for a great season. Cheers!
Good points made, Brian. I think people also tend to forget that the young Leafs are prone to the “sophomore season slump”. Also, a lot of teams were surprised on how good these young kids were. This year, however, teams will be surely well prepared to face them. I see the Habs, pending the injuries, finishing right behind Tampa, and not by much…
The x factor is Claude Julien and the change of system. Less shots againt from high danger area. With Price, Weber, Alzner habs have , i think, the best shutown team and will likely allow the least amount of goal. The PK has already changed under CJ (5GA in 24games for 89% rate). Habs could go from 200 GA (3rd overall) to 180 -185 GA in 17-18, just by cutting down 100 shots against and improved PK.
So if Habs score exact same amount of goal ( no Gallagher or Galchenyuk bounceback, no Lehkonen improvement, no Drouin step forward, no PP uptick ) that would be 226 – league average is 227. That habs finnish season with 106-110pts. Yup, habs make the playoff!!
One last thing on Markov ; everyone makes the same mistake. Sure Canadiens will miss the player Markov WAS. But, not the player he IS now. Its hard to look bad when you play alogside the best shutdown D-men in league(Weber) and top 5 transition d-men -Petry, yes hes that good.
With parity there isn’t that much between the 3rd and 5th teams. Brian agree with you we underestimate our team and overestimate the others. The beauty of sport is the unpredictability. If everything was as we expected, what would be the worth in watching it.
Sorry Brian but u forgot the injury factor.
Chuckie, Markov and Gallagher missed each20 games. That is not a lot.
We already know Markov will ”miss”82 games.
And u forgot the wild card format.
Conference
top3
PIT-M
CLB-M
TOR-A
4to6
WAS -M
OTT-A
CAR-M yep Darling and Williams (+AHO) will add 10points, with a 57M caphit!!!
7to11
TBL-A
NYR-M
MTL-A
BOS-A
NYI-M
u just can’t score when you are deep in your zone + a slow defense means a lot of penalties
they have a 50-50 chance and if they make the PO, they will lose in the first round
but the Bell Center will be full..that is the only thing that matters isn’t it?
Certainly didn’t forget anything but I did not for time’s sake mention every point, just the most important ones. We shall see. This is why they play the games my friend.
I think the current lineup is good enough to finish 2nd or 3rd. Don’t see how Ottawa, Boston or Detroit have improved. Florida and Buffalo probably have im proved but I think only enough to overtake those 3 that haven’t improved.
My disclaimer is the current lineup. I can’t see Bergevin sitting on almost $7 million of capping space if he can improve the team
but the worst thing is that if they start the season with a 7-10-3 record or less, the medias will ask for a trade (8.4M capspace)
and Bergevin will trade Poehling and/or Juulsen and/or Ikonen and/or Chuckie and/or a 2018 first choice for Goligosky or Edler
#firebergevin
There is only one person who has any clue about where Bergevin stands job wise and I talk to him and he seems quite fine.
Finish 2nd in the division with right around 100 points…not sure where all the gloom & doom is coming from
Great stuff! Am I the only one who thinks the Leafs could drop off big? Injuries, goaltending and depth are gonna play a big role in the Leafs success, or lack thereof, this year. I don’t think anyone mentioned TBs goaltending either. I’m a big goalie fan, I’m still not convinced Vasil can be the guy, without that threat of Bishop coming back. Love Budaj, but can he be a starter? Hasn’t yet.
Lastly, people keep saying, “If Price gets hurt…” I say, well no shit! If any team loses their best player, they’ll be in trouble. Obviously the Habs success relies on a healthy TEAM! Gally and Chucky had injuries troubles, they’ll be better. Pleky can’t be worse. Waiting to see what you get for Xmas before you spend your 8.5 million? Thats just brilliant!
Keep up the great work.
McCagg actually is the only guy besides you now who thinks the Leafs will drop off. He also cites their nearly perfect health last year.
Great video as always!
I disagree with a few points regarding the competition. All things being equal I think the Lightning do win the division this season, but I don’t see the Leafs getting so lucky with injuries two seasons in a row. Combine that with possible sophomore slumps from the youngsters, Kadri and JVR not quite reaching last season’s totals, a sketchy defense and inconsistent goaltending, and you have a bubble team in my opinion.
As for Florida, I have no idea which direction they are going as an organization but I doubt it’s up. Detroit is approaching full rebuild mode at this point. Ottawa will be a solid but middling team, Chabot will be great but expectations have to be tempered for his first season, and Methot is a huge loss. I do think Boston may surprise some this season though. I don’t think their forwards are elite, but when healthy Bergeron, Krejci, Pastrnak, Marchand and Backes can be formidable up front. Rask is a very solid goalie, and their main weakness, which was defense, looks to be much improved with McAvoy coming in. Add him to Chara, Krug, and Carlo (very underrated), and that’s a very solid top 4.
Buffalo is the wildcard in the picture, as easy as it is to completely write them off, I don’t think we should underestimate the ability of a player like Eichel to transform that team if he can stay healthy and play the full season. There are some very interesting pieces around him too like Reinhart, Okposo, O’Reilly, Kane, and Scandella should help the D.
Oh and yeah Mtl is a lock to make the playoffs if healthy. Drouin will be dynamite, and Price, Weber, Patch will do what they do. I foresee another 100 point season for the Tricolore.
I see it breaking down this way:
1 – TBL
2 – Mtl
3 – Bos
4 – Tor
5 – Buf
6 – Ott
7 – Flo
8 – Det
Also you called your dog dumb :O He’s a good dog Brian
He’s a wonderful dumb dog. 🙂
Great graffiti and vid Brian. I think Drouin at center is going to be a turning point. Explosion point? That would be after the trade deadline when we get another top center and top D. Habs will have the best record in the second half.
If you can say that you’re Markov shy compared to Alzner but have 8.5 …. seems not far off even. Certainly not missing playoffs just as a comparison of rosters.
I really do agree with Grant’s assesment of the Leafs. There’s an immense “hype train” that has developped in Leaf Land that is fueled by major Net works. I follow alot of Leaf guys on Twitter And its like they’ve becoming the 80’s Oilers….
They’d have you believe Reilly is Norris material. Up & coming Yes. Ready for top 3 in division? No…I even think Ottawa passes them 🙄🙄🙄
1-TB
2-Mtl
3-Ott
Habs will be in 1st again book it, best goalie on the planet! Drouin will get 65 pts easy, over 8 million dollars in cap space will make Bergy fleece another team.
I don’t believe our offense is as bad as people think it is. I think a lot of players could bounce back and improve: Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Danault, etc. I will admit our blue line is a bit depressive, and someone is gonna have to step up there. Like you I don’t see them making the playoffs, but from there it’s all about staying healthy and individual performances.
I don’t think it’s out of the question that Montreal misses the playoffs. I’d give it a 35-65 chance. What can push them into that 35% position regardless of Price and Drouin and Weber and a slew of good wingers?
As you point out Brian, Markov’s absence is going to hurt…a lot. I think we’re finally going to see just how valuable he was and is. He is a super puck moving defenceman because he’s 3 steps ahead of everyone else. Julien will make everyone better I think so that will indeed offset some of that loss. If the Habs miss the playoffs it will be because of their model and because other teams have transitioned to the puck movement style faster than the Habs. You didn’t mention Carolina, who were bad last year because of goaltending. Darling will fix that. That’s a well coached team, with some young forwards about to take the next step and a very strong, mobile defence. I think they’ll make the playoffs. I think the Leafs will miss because of the injury pendulum swinging the other way. Mostly, instead of moving to a more mobile, strong transitioning style of defenseman, the Habs have stayed with older more stay at home types. That can’t help in a league which is getting faster by the month. Because of Price, they should have enough to make it, but it’s not a lock.
Hello Brian, been a long time fan of yours. I believe the Habs will finish first or second this upcoming year. Not sure why the constant negativity from fans and some media, gets tiring to see and hear. For that reason your “alternative” perspective is refreshing. Perhaps some of these folks have been spurned by Habs organization at one time, although we’ll never know because the Habs ALWAYS take the high road. Loved the Weber trade last year, PK great person, but not great teammate Imo. l love the Drouin trade, incredible talent, will miss Markov, great teammate and team ambassador, he’ll be back in a different role. Yes he’ll be missed on the ice but I appreciate the guts it took not to sign at “too high a price”. Will miss the Radulov from last year but not the “comfortable” Radulov. Plus no one talking about the fact that he and his wife divorced. This event may become an on ice distraction to some degree. Best to move on. My final point I wish to make is that MB and team make their personnel and organizational decisions with far more information available to them than available to those outside the organization.
I think the Canadiens will finish 2nd and I do believe that Julien’s coaching and Drouin presents on the ice will be a big factor. Defense on the other hand will be a question mark without Markov
Excellent Walk today. I believe they are a wild card team at best because they simply did not do enough to improve their offence. Yes Carey and Julien will be worth points and our D will be a more prevent defence than an offensive defence. But somewhere down the road you will have to score and Drouin alone will not make up that firepower shortage. Max will score in bunches but will disappear for long stretches- Gally will be a toss up with his hand issues- Danault and Shaw are not scorers- Plex is done so our wild cards are AG and Lekhonen. Will they be enough? I am not sure.
It will be a fight for the WC and I see a reversion back to a defencsive approach and a lot of low scoring games.
I also see Buffalo surprising a lot of people.
If the Hab’s 5 on 5 scoring remains the same as last season, I would expect the overall offence to improve with Drouin’s addition to the power-play.
A better PP along with more of a shutdown d-core could spell another first place finish.
Agree! Drouin may be the steal of the decade. If Alex can regain form, if one rookie is as good as Lekolenn, they are cup contenders.
Third in the division after Toronto and Tampa. Still they should try to get help in the offence with the 8.5M left
I really liked the video… solid points and really realistic prediction. I say they will be battling for 1st with Tampa, so I say 1 or 2 in their division. Brian, I know you touched on this in your podcast with Eric Engels, but what are the odds of getting Tavares with that 8.5 million? Grant, what are your thoughts on this?
Lots of things stacked against them getting Tavares – do the Islanders even deal him..would he sign long-term here, would other teams offer more….if he does get dealt though I think Montreal would be a favourite to get him.
I would love for him to come here! I know Eric said it will cost us, but he’s a proven leader, scorer and centre. I hope he decides to leave Long Island!!
It’s hard to know because it is hard to get into his mind. It can happen sure but it has to be what Tavares wants. That’s the beauty of free agency. The player has free will.
I think the real wild card here as you so rightly put it Brian, is the free cap space. Drouin will definitely be a WIN, but if Habs can get a Puck Moving D, or a 1B center? Whole different team we’re looking at.
1-2-3 to be fought for between MTL-TB_TOR.. injuries to be the deciding factor, regardless of whether Habs use the 8.5M or not. (want them to use the $ a center, not D)
I also think we underestimate the upgrades on D, Emelin/Beaulieu/Pateryn/Nesterov were anywhere from suspect to atrocious defensively.. does anyone remember Nesterov in the playoffs? We were under siege every time he was on the ice.
Markov was a hell of a smart/talented player, but his lack of speed was giving more & more problems.. 1st line minutes for him was far from a good situation, and was only going to get worse.
Give me Alzner, a full season of Benn, Schlemko as 3 sure bets to join Weber/Petry on the top 6… that’s a much more solid defensive group to play in front of the best goalie in hockey. Then wildcards Jerabek/Morrow with offensive potential, Davidson, vet Streit, even Gélinas on PTO… many NHL-experienced options when injuries hit.
Plus Drouin to take Markov’s PP minutes, I’m truly a huge Markov fan.. but this D will be better, not worse, when all is said and done. If by chance on top of it Jerabek or Morrow ever break out to be the puck moving Dman to play with Weber that Beaulieu failed to become, then Habs D would be A LOT better than last year, not just a little. Big if, but just saying.
Brian, what’s Sakic smoking? Why trade Duchense? Build around him and Mackinnon, I say.
The poor guy is quite paralyzed. He’s got to get some D help.
Id say look forward to a hot start and with strong coaching a strong finish too. 2nd in the Division.
I predict Montreal will end up first in their division and win the Cup. The parade will include the guys/girls from TSN, the Gazette and Berkshire who will take credit for pushing the management/staff to make the team better by bullying, insulting, mocking and discrediting them in the media. 😉
Quite positive on the team for this year.I expect GM will acquire a top four D this fall.Getting Tavares would strengthen Cup chances.Go Habs
They can finish 1st . Drouin, Price, Lehkonen, Patch, Weber will have great year . You can add someone with the 8.4 million of cap space. The CH are in a good position.